Xi Has Gained Full Control Of China's Army And Carte Blanche Over Taiwan

• 1.02.2026, 14:39

Concentration of power increases the risks of error.

Chinese President Si Jinping has effectively concentrated complete control of China's armed forces in his own hands, eliminating the last high-ranking military officers capable of influencing decision-making. The arrest of General Zhang Yuxia - his longtime ally and childhood friend whom Xi called "big brother" - has eliminated any credible domestic voices capable of restraining Beijing's actions on Taiwan, writes The Wall Street Journal. According to experts interviewed by the publication, this gives Xi carte blanche on the Taiwan issue and indicates his unprecedented confidence in the prospect of "reunification."

At the same time, analysts who spoke to the WSJ note that amid the personnel upheaval, an immediate invasion of Taiwan looks less likely. Instead, Xi is shifting his focus to a coercive campaign aimed at undermining Taipei's resolve without launching open hostilities. At issue are ongoing military exercises simulating a sea and air blockade of the island, economic and cyber pressure, and "legal warfare" - the use of Chinese law to harass Taiwanese officials and pressure Taiwanese citizens.

Taiwanese authorities claim cyberattacks on the island's energy and medical infrastructure, as well as Beijing's attempts to diplomatically isolate Taiwan, including through pressure on Japan. According to Laura Rosenberger, a former senior U.S. official in Taiwan, maintaining a credible military threat remains Xi's key tool for pressuring Taipei.

The arrest of Zhang Yuxia came to light on January 24. The incident was part of a sweeping purge in which Xi has in recent years retired five of the six generals he personally appointed just three years ago. Although the Chinese military was told in a private briefing that Zhang allegedly passed nuclear secrets to the US and took bribes, Beijing officially limited itself to language about violations of party discipline and law, and the Chinese Defense Ministry urged to avoid "unfounded speculation," the WSJ wrote.

One possible reason for the conflict between Xi and Zhang, analysts say, is disagreement over the timing of the army's preparation for the Taiwan scenario. As Jamestown Foundation analyst K. Tristan Tang, Xi insisted on achieving full operational readiness by 2027, while Zhang attributed that goal to 2035. After his arrest, an army newspaper accused the general of "seriously flouting" the Central Military Council chairman's system of absolute authority -- language that experts see as indicating a political challenge to Xi's authority.

Some analysts warn that the concentration of power increases the risks of mistakes. Former Pentagon strategist Drew Thompson notes that by weakening the top military governing body, Xi has complicated the command and control system, effectively running a million-man army through a "one-man committee." Still, according to WSJ sources, Beijing sees the risk as justified and is increasingly skeptical of Washington's willingness to intervene in the conflict over Taiwan.

Even the largest-ever U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, worth $11.1 billion, is seen in Beijing more as support for the U.S. defense industry than as a hard security commitment, notes Yun Sun, director of the Stimson Center's China program. China also expects to use Xi's contacts with President Donald Trump to further undermine Taipei's confidence in the United States. White House sources in the publication, however, say Washington is betting on containing China through a defense backed by the "first island chain" and on deepening technological connectivity with Taiwan.