Where Did The 1.5 Million Contract Workers In The Russian Federation Disappear To?
- 9.01.2026, 10:59
No matter how much the Kremlin keeps silent about its losses, their magnitude cannot be hidden in a closet.
During the "direct line" Putin announced the number of troops in the occupied part of Ukraine, and some Z-bloggers were genuinely perplexed. Suddenly it turned out that up to 1.5 million Russian contract soldiers had disappeared somewhere
For lack of official information on the losses of the Russian Armed Forces, it is hard to believe that all of these 1.5 million died. However, this figure closely overlaps with the Ukrainian General Staff's data on Russian losses. But what are the real losses of the Russians during almost four years of war?
The most verified and accurate approach is offered by Mediazona, which, together with the BBC, collects information on the dead on a regular basis - based on inheritance files and open sources on dead Russian military personnel.
As of December 2025, the number of recorded deaths amounted to 156,000 people, and indirect calculations based on inheritance cases - 219,000. The calculation based on recorded deaths is the most accurate, although it probably does not cover all losses, because information about the dead appears with a great delay or does not get into open sources at all. It also does not take into account the number of missing persons.
There is another way of estimation that no one mentions - sociological surveys. Polls do not give an exact figure of Russians who have died, but they allow us to estimate the approximate amount of losses.
In 2024, VTsIOM conducted a survey on the size of Russians' circle of friends. It turned out that each Russian on average has about 8 friends. The most interesting thing about this poll was the question about the reasons for losing friends, and 4% of respondents said they had lost a friend to the SWO.
VTSIOM is a sociological service quite loyal to the Russian government, so if the data was somehow distorted, it was most likely in the direction of underestimation rather than overestimation - not to demonstrate the dire consequences of the war for Russians.
Let's take as a basis for calculations the able-bodied population of the Russian Federation (aged 16 to 62), that is, about 85 million people in 2024. Taking into account the number of friends (8 people) and the share of losses (4%), the number of dead Russians in 2024 is about 420 thousand people.
Another research center of the Russian Federation - Levada-Center - regularly conducts public opinion polls regarding the so-called special military operation in Ukraine. In one poll in August 2025, respondents were asked, "How much did the special military operation affect you personally and your family?"
The share of Russians surveyed who were somehow affected by the SWO was about 58%. It is worth noting that 40% believe that they were "not affected at all" by the SWO. Among those who have been affected by the war, about 30% have had relatives, friends or acquaintances killed. If we assume that a typical Russian has up to 50 relatives, friends and acquaintances, then the number of casualties in the war equals 300,000 people.
Different sources say that the number of dead exceeds 200,000 people. Sociological studies give an estimate of up to 400 thousand. We do not know the exact figures of the dead and probably never will, but the losses at the level of about 300 thousand look quite plausible. And if we assume that the ratio of dead to wounded is 1 to 3, then the AFU General Staff's figure of 1.2 million Russian casualties is absolutely realistic.
It is obvious that the losses are not some secret for the Russians, which is completely hidden by propaganda. The scale of the losses is widely known, and the war from the TV has long been a reality for many families in the Russian Federation. And no matter how much the Kremlin keeps silent about its losses, their magnitude cannot be hidden in a closet.
Andriy Fedorenko, nv.ua