Ukrainian Intelligence: New Gas Contract Between Belarus And Russia Never Signed

• 8.01.2026, 10:41

Lukashenko's regime found itself under blackmail from Russia.

Belarus' energy dependence on Russia has increased. This was informed by the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Ukraine on January 7.

"In Belarus, energy uncertainty worsened in early 2026: despite the statements about the readiness of a new gas contract with Russia, the agreement was never signed, while the previous one ended on December 31, 2025," reads the report.

Ukrainian intelligence noted that throughout the past year Minsk has been pushing Moscow to bring prices closer to domestic Russian tariffs, to pay in Russian rubles and to conclude a long-term contract until 2030.

"However, even approximate price parameters have not been voiced, which only increases the atmosphere of uncertainty and dependence. [...] The studies demonstrate the critical vulnerability of the Belarusian energy system," the SVR emphasized.

According to its data, Belarus produces about 60% of electricity from gas, and the cost of electricity depends almost entirely on gas prices.

"Given that natural gas and oil come almost exclusively from Russia, Belarus has found itself in a situation of absolute import dependence - without its own resources and with technological attachment to the Russian infrastructure. This model creates ideal conditions for blackmail. The most dangerous risks are the termination or restriction of gas and oil supplies - a scenario that could lead to a large-scale economic and social catastrophe," the SVR explains.

The service concludes that Belarus' energy security is "more of an illusion than a reality."

"The state is trapped in its own strategic myopia, where 'cheap resources' are exchanged for political pliability. Without radical solutions to reduce dependence on Russia, the country risks facing any geopolitical storm in the dark and cold, remaining hostage to its weakness and lack of real energy autonomy," the SVR said.