"Lukashenko May Be Hit Preemptively"

• 30.01.2026, 12:14

A weakened Russia will not help a dictator.

What strategy towards Lukashenka's regime does Kiev need? What opportunities for changing the situation in Belarus did Ukraine miss? Can Russia's weakening trigger change in Belarus? Why Donald Trump's Peace Council resembles a "club of frightened dictators."

About this and more, editor-in-chief of Charter97.org Natalya Radina told in an interview YouTube channel of well-known journalist Evgeny Kiselyov.

Evgeny Kiselev asked about the change in rhetoric by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky toward Lukashenko's regime that has occurred in recent days. Natalia Radina welcomes the Ukrainian president's words, but reminds of the opportunities Kiev missed:

- There was harsh rhetoric in the first months of the large-scale offensive, when, among other things, Russian troops entered Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Then President Zelensky directly said that Belarus could be liberated, including by the Ukrainian army. I can't say that then Zelensky was silent, no, the President of Ukraine periodically recalled Belarus, and we are grateful to him for that. Now the President of Ukraine has spoken really harshly about Lukashenko's regime, and this is good, but I have to say that, of course, all these harsh statements should have been made earlier, because a lot of opportunities were missed.

And among other things, opportunities were missed during the mass protests that took place in Belarus in 2020. President Zelensky criticizes the European Union for insufficient support for Belarus at that time, but it should be said that Ukraine did not support the Belarusians properly at that time either. What was done from the side of Ukraine, apart from the fact that Lukashenko stopped being called "president" and started to be called "self-proclaimed president"? The support was mostly given in words.

In fact, Ukraine bought Belarusian oil products from Russian oil, construction materials, cement, fertilizers. And in 2021, after the EU imposed sanctions, despite the fact that Ukraine is an associated state with the European Union, it did not impose these sanctions on Lukashenko's regime. And this is a huge mistake, because it was possible to prevent Russian troops from attacking Belarus, if then all together could have finished the dictatorship in Belarus.

Evgeny Kiselyov referred to an article by European Pravda, which said that Kiev's cautious policy towards Belarus was due to fears because of the pro-Russian rhetoric of some opposition representatives, including Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org emphasizes that the most pro-Russian politician in Belarus is Lukashenko:

- It was necessary to support the Belarusian people, a million people took to the streets across the country to protest against Lukashenko's regime. What does this have to do with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who, let me remind you, was almost immediately taken away by the special services to Lithuania?

I agree, yes, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya really spoke about Ukraine during the election campaign extremely incompetently, she didn't know whose Crimea was, she wasn't able to say that it was Ukrainian. We, Belarusians, remember all this ourselves.

Tikhanovskaya is no real leader of the opposition, it is quite clear to everyone that she is an accidental figure who has not been in politics until 2020. Analyzing what happened during these five years, and also taking into account that, as it turned out, she took money from the generals of the Belarusian security services before leaving Minsk for Vilnius, there are big doubts how independent she is. But it was necessary to support the Belarusians, and here to refer to the fact that "you have a split weak opposition there"... What makes you think that? The real leaders of the opposition were already in prison by that time, they were arrested preventively. What influence of Russia on the opposition are you talking about? Excuse me, is there a more pro-Russian politician in the country than Alexander Lukashenko, who was so beloved in Ukraine until 2022? Who was the most popular foreign politician there, by the way, along with Putin, they were close in the rankings.

It was only in 2022 that they finally had an epiphany and realized that it wasn't "Batya" but a "bitch" who was absolutely controlled by the Kremlin and let the Russian army into Ukraine.

Natalya Radina urges Kiev to take real, not declarative measures against Lukashenko's regime:

- Today it is very important for Ukraine, together with its Western allies, to develop a real strategy with regard to Belarus. It should provide for a change of the regime in Minsk to a pro-democratic and pro-European one, including, given the current situation, by military means. Given the threats that emanate from the territory of Belarus - nuclear missiles, "Oreshnik" - both Ukraine and the European Union can act preventively against this regime. This strategy should provide for strengthening sanctions and strict control over their implementation. We need to work on disabling Russian bases in Belarus. By the way, President Zelensky recently claimed that operators of Russian jet drones were working on Ukraine from Belarus. "Shaheds" that fly at Ukrainian cities are operated from our country. The Russian radar station in Hantsevichy aims missiles at Ukraine. And this is not to mention the Belarusian oil refineries that produce diesel for Russian tanks. So there is something to do. And there is no need to say that "the Belarusians want to get freedom and democracy on a ball so that the Ukrainians would die for them". No, Belarusians themselves can defend their country, but they need help and support, just as Ukrainians need it to defend their country.

Natalya Radina noted that the beginning of the year was extremely difficult for Lukashenko:

- The U.S. kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro is a serious trauma for Lukashenko, believe me, because he had excellent relations both with Ugo Chavez, Maduro's predecessor, and with the Venezuelan ruler himself. And the very fact that the dictator was arrested in his bedroom and, most importantly, was turned in by his own entourage is a shock to Lukashenko. He understands perfectly well that at any moment he can be turned in not only by the nomenklatura, but by his own sons, because they will save themselves. In 32 years Lukashenko has committed so many crimes, from murdering oppositionists to theft and corruption, that no one wants to be an accomplice to them.

Lukashenko is also now looking at Iran with concern. Yes, we can criticize the U.S. president for being slow to react to the crackdown on demonstrators and massacres. But Lukashenko sees that this is indeed a precedent: in response to the brutal suppression of peaceful demonstrations, missile strikes on decision-making centers in Iran cannot be ruled out. No one could even think about this before, but today we are discussing it. And this decision may well be taken by the US president in the near future.

The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org is sure that the key event that may affect the liberation of Belarus from dictatorship will be the weakening of Russia:

- The depletion of the Russian economy is happening, as you can see, at a fairly rapid pace. Economist Igor Lipsitz says bluntly that the war is destroying Russia's economy, and how long it can keep it going is a big question. The low oil price, Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries in Russia, and Western sanctions against Russian tankers are all hitting the Russian economy as well. Receipts to the Russian budget from the sale of energy resources are reduced, and secondary sanctions against China and India, which buy Russian oil and oil products, may be imposed - all this is already affecting the situation in Belarus.

Lukashenko's attempts to negotiate with the United States are precisely due to the fact that the Belarusian economy is also being rapidly destroyed by Western sanctions. He is once again trying to sell political prisoners in exchange for the removal of restrictive measures.

At the end of the interview, Natalia Radina commented on Lukashenko's hasty joining the "Peace Council" of US President Donald Trump:

- I have a feeling that this "Peace Council" is a group of frightened dictators who hope that by giving a billion dollars to Trump as a bribe, they will be able to bargain for a few more years of rule. The way Lukashenko hastily signed this decree on joining the "Peace Council", found the money, which today the Belarusian budget catastrophically lacks, really looks like a bribe to Trump with a request not to touch the dictator.

I don't think this structure has a prospect. EU leaders have ignored joining the "Peace Council". Especially it will not become an alternative to the UN, no matter how much we want to reform this organization.