It Has Become Clear Where The Dollar Exchange Rate Will Go Next
- 19.01.2026, 9:17
The takeoff is canceled?
Currency trading on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange is gaining momentum, and the Belarusian ruble exchange rate continues to strengthen along with it. Contrary to our expectations, by the end of the second week, the U.S. dollar rate in the Belarusian currency market fell to the end of last year. What exchange rates to expect in the second half of January, says financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in the traditional forecast for myfin.by.
Dollar goes into a prolonged decline
On Friday, January 16, quotes of the currency pair USD/BYN stopped at 2.9001. In total for the week, the dollar fell in price by -1.17%, and to the beginning of the year, the rate correction is still -0.09%. The trading volume for the week amounted to $78.123 million, which is slightly higher than the average value.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian fx market rose by 0.37% over the same period, while the rate correction is still +0.32% against the beginning of the year. The closing rate on Friday amounted to RUB/BYN 3.7176, the volume of trading in the Russian ruble on the BCSE for the week 20165.660 million rubles, which is above average.
A sufficiently high volume of liquidity, which passed through currency trading last week, indicates an active market and high demand for foreign currency on the part of traders. The same signals come from the Russian financial market, where the Russian Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have increased the supply of currency to the domestic market. It is this reason that Russian colleagues point out as the main reason for the strengthening of the ruble on the domestic market. On Friday, January 16, the dollar exchange rate on the Russian market dropped at moments to USD/RUB 77.51.
Belarusians are buying less currency
The demand for foreign currency is also decreasing on the part of the population, which has finished New Year vacations, and on the part of importers, who have finished New Year sales. However, there is an opinion that the demand for foreign currency may revive on the eve of the Chinese New Year to close transactions, but it will be closer to February 17.
In general, the fx market remains balanced and there's no excitement on it. Recall that the Belarusian economy will face peak payments on government obligations in 2026. In December 2025, it was decided not to refinance government debt, but to maximize the repayment of obligations. In these circumstances, the National Bank will build up reserves in foreign currency, although for these purposes it was possible to send part of the monetary gold from the reserves, the price of which is now at historic highs.
Gold breaks records
The price of the precious metal last week settled around $4600 per ounce, and on Wednesday, January 14, showed another high of $4650.5 per ounce. The silver price was climbing to $93.7 an ounce on Thursday, January 15. In the first two weeks of 2026, all platinum group metals are rapidly increasing in price, regularly updating the next highs. The reason for this demand for these assets is the growing geopolitical uncertainty that is emanating from the United States. Due to the fact that the current administration of the United States pursues an aggressive foreign policy, regardless of friends and enemies, it is easy to predict that in the foreseeable future we will witness several more highs in the price of precious metals.
Weekly Forecast
Returning to the Belarusian currency market, expectations of the Belarusian ruble rate reversal to growth have to be postponed indefinitely. The reason is the lack of demand for dollars and euros on the part of almost all participants of the domestic market. How and when the demand will resume is a question of time. For now, it is most likely to expect the dollar rate around USD/BYN 2.88 - 2.91. At the same time, the Russian ruble continues to grow in value.