The Kremlin Has Not Yet Recovered From The Shock

• 17.01.2026, 17:23

The ally is gone.

Two weeks have already passed since the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, but the Kremlin apparently has not yet recovered from the incident. Maduro, Moscow's longtime partner and one of the symbols of the so-called "anti-Western camp," was perceived by the Russian leadership as a reliable element of Vladimir Putin's foreign policy construct. Journalist and publicist Mikhail Zygar writes about this in his column for Der Spiegel.

Even a year ago, the Venezuelan leader traveled to Russia and was present at the podium during the May 9 parade, an event that is almost sacred in Kremlin symbolism.

With these events as a backdrop, Russia has been selling oil to India in recent weeks for about $22 a barrel - almost three times below the global average price. In fact, we may be talking about the sale of raw materials on the edge of the cost of production. This price policy makes the Russian economy extremely sensitive to any fluctuations in the global oil market.

At the same time, as Zygar notes, one should not expect an immediate collapse of the Russian economy. The share of Venezuelan oil is about 1% of the world production, and increasing its production to significant volumes will require many years and huge investments. Nevertheless, Russia's financial and resource capacity to continue the war will gradually diminish, although the author estimates that Putin is still capable of sustaining the fighting for at least a couple more years.

For two decades, Moscow has invested arms, money, and political capital in the regimes of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro, while China has provided Caracas with multibillion-dollar loans against future oil supplies. Now much of these assets and guarantees have effectively fallen under Washington's control, increasing the Kremlin's vulnerability and forcing it to reassess key foreign policy and economic calculations.