Protests In Iran Have Spooked Lukashenko
- 10.01.2026, 13:37
And gave the Belarusians hope.
The protests that have once again risen in Iran give hope that the protesters will finally succeed in getting their way, although the situation is not fully understood. Meanwhile, Alexander Lukashenko is cautiously watching it, because there are similarities in the situation in Iran and Belarus. This opinion was expressed by political observer Alexander Fridman during the discussion of the situation in Iran on the air of "Belsat".
"It gives hope"
Iranian President Ali Khamenei said that protesters are harming the country to please US President Donald Trump. Khamenei added that Trump could leave office at the peak of his popularity. According to Alexander Friedman, the U.S. could indeed have a serious impact on the situation in Iran.
"We know that Trump is prone to emotional steps. So after this statement by Khamenei, a lot of things are possible. I think Trump also understands very well that he is exactly the kind of person who can influence the situation very strongly," Alexander Fridman said.
The US president said earlier that if protesters were killed in Iran, the US could intervene. At least 30 protesters are already known to have been killed. Alexander Fridman does not rule out that US threats may be realized.
"The question is rather how this will affect events, whether it will encourage people to come out in even greater numbers to protest, whether it will somehow weaken the regime. That's all an open question. We see Trump has a pretty clear strategy. He is fundamentally ready for military operations, but if he is confident that it can bring victory. As for Iran, there is no such confidence, as the situation is very shaky and especially unclear," he notes.
According to the expert, supporters of the resistance in Iran expect US intervention that could help them. However, there have been, among other things, negative reactions in the United States to intervention in Venezuela.
"So most likely, if there is a strike on Iran, there will not be a particularly positive reaction in the United States. The other question is when the result will be. If indeed with the help of this intervention the regime that was established in 1979, the radical anti-American regime, falls, in the long run, of course, this could give Trump additional bonuses in the United States itself," says Alexander Fridman."
In the meantime, an unusual situation has developed in Iran itself. The expert reminds that the history of protests in this country is long. They arose because of disagreement with the political course and dissatisfaction with the status of women. Now these reasons have been joined by big economic problems, which have caused the current protests.
"The situation in Iran is simply catastrophic. The people who are taking to the streets especially have nothing to lose anymore. It is another thing when the situation is more or less economic, as it was in Belarus in 2020, and people came out for freedom, for democracy, for fair elections. In today's Iranian case, it is not about simply achieving freedom and democracy. Of course, these goals have not disappeared. But here the issue is also economic - to somehow get out of this plight," Alexander Fridman continues.
He notes that economic protests are particularly radical and persistent, which is what we are seeing now.
"This gives hope that even in such a situation, when it seems that there are no chances and you will never succeed, at some point it may still work out," says Alexander Fridman.
Lukashenko tensed up?
The expert sees certain similarities in the situations of Belarus and Iran.
"Who expected a week ago that the protests [in Iran. - Ed. note] would reach the level they are at now? Just like in Belarus in 2020. Who expected in early August 2020 that the Belarusan protests would be the way they ended up being," says Friedman.
Belarus and Iran also have in common that the countries are ruled by "people from the past."
"They are focused on the past and destroy the future of the young generation. This is a common feature of both Iran and Belarus," says the interlocutor.
He is sure that what is happening in Iran has caused Alexander Lukashenko to associate it with 2020 in Belarus.
"And such a deterioration of the economic situation in Iran, and the fact that, despite threats, people go out on the streets and protest - this is probably the worst thing imaginable for a dictator like Lukashenko. That's why he is following these events, but he doesn't even want to amplify them, to introduce them into the Belarusian official discourse. He doesn't want people in Belarus to pay attention to it at all. After all, when you pay attention to the events in Iran, you start to think and make certain analogies between the Iranian events and the Belarusian ones," summarizes Alexander Fridman.
Mass protests began in Iran in late December and are still continuing and expanding. On January 9, authorities shut down the internet in the country, and phone calls in the country were also unavailable.