The Beginning Of A New Wave Of Dollar Growth?
- 8.09.2025, 7:37
Expert Prediction.
With the beginning of September and the fall development of the financial market, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble has overcome the bar of Br3, and this may be the beginning of the trend to weaken the national currency. What exchange rates to expect in mid-September, says financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in the traditional forecast for the site myfin.by.
Dollar fixes above Br3
At the end of the first week, the dollar rate on the BCSE trades rose to USD/BYN 3.0094. Total for the week, the dollar rate rose by +1.22%, while the decline in the year-on-year rate decreased to -13.36%. The dollar trading volume on the exchange for the week amounted to 54.626, which corresponds to the monthly average.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble rose by a minimal +0.06% last week. The closing rate on Friday amounted to RUB/BYN 3.6995 per 100 Russian rubles. By the beginning of the year, the ruble exchange rate has remained virtually unchanged at +10.35%. But the ruble trading volume is above average with 18,308.150 million Russian rubles.
Thereby, last week the Belarusian currency fell in price against the whole basket of currencies of the National Bank and the index of the basket at the beginning of the current week is 0.1762 points.
Russian currency market sets the trend
The Russian financial market last week also passed with a plus sign towards the growth of foreign currencies. The U.S. dollar exchange rate on the Moscow interbank closed Friday at USD/RUB 81.25. The weakening of the Russian ruble follows the changes in the balance on the currency market. While the sale of currencies decreased at the beginning of the month due to the end of the tax period and reduction of supply on the part of exporters (abolition of the law on compulsory sale of foreign currency), there is an increase in the purchase of currency by importers.
At the same time, interest in currency is growing against the background of expectations of the September meeting of the Bank of Russia and the likelihood of lowering the key rate. In addition, recent summits with the participation of Russia's top officials give signals about the likelihood of revival of foreign trade operations, which also fuels interest in the currency.
In addition, we should not forget that the Russian government expects the ruble to depreciate in order to restore the foreign trade balance and reduce the budget deficit.
All these factors can accelerate the Russian ruble exchange rate to 90-95 rubles per dollar by the end of the year, and in the short term closer to 85 rubles per "buck".
Weekly Forecast
In the global financial market, the U.S. dollar is in deep fiasco. The depressing labor market statistics on Friday September 5 (the number of non-farm payrolls fell to a low of 22 thousand) caused the main currency pair EUR/USD to rise to 1.1757. The price of the December gold futures contract on the New York Metal Exchange updated its recent all-time high to $3654 per ounce. The price of spot gold crossed the psychological threshold of $3600 per ounce. Thus, the price of gold in the current year breaks all records of profitability and confirms the investment attractiveness of the asset.
This week there is a high probability of the continuation of the trend for the softening of the Belarusian ruble against the major currencies of the Belarusian market. A stronger upward movement of the euro is possible due to the weakening of the dollar at the OTC forex market. The dollar exchange rate in the Belarusian currency market may rise to USD/BYN 3.035. At the same time, the Russian ruble remains near the current values.