Arkady Moshes: Lukashenko Left Unhappy With China

• 5.09.2025, 8:38

The dictator was pointed to his place in the emperor's retinue.

Director of the research program on the EU Eastern Neighborhood and Russia at the Finnish Institute of International Relations Arkadi Moshes in an interview with "Filin" spoke about the results of Alexander Lukashenko's Chinese tour:

- For me, the most spectacular of it all was the parade. China spared no money: thousands of soldiers and equipment - it was interesting to watch. I always thought it was difficult to surpass the Russians in the tradition of parades. It turned out to be possible.

- Do you think Lukashenko left China satisfied?

- I don't think he left satisfied. He likes to be in the center of events, as they say, to be the groom at every wedding..... And here neither Lukashenko nor even Putin was at the epicenter of attention.

There was Si Jinping. As he drove his car along the lined up soldiers and equipment - you should have seen that nonchalant expression on his face without any facial expressions.

That is, everything was intended as an event with China at the center. And so it was. The SCO was held as a "warm-up".

- Do you think everyone was called there as extras?

- Yes, everyone who came only emphasized the role and place of today's China in the world.

- Even before this trip, some experts said that it would increase Lukashenko's legitimacy. Did it?

- I don't think so. Those countries that were there recognized him before. And this fits into the context of the question "is Lukashenko going to the West?" - No, he is not.

The countries that gathered there emphasized in every possible way that they do not recognize the American hegemony, that earlier they intended to break it, and now, obviously, they have already broken it. A coalition has been formed, which today is actually led by China, and a number of junior partners are gathering around it.

The only one present, Slovak Prime Minister Fitzo, remained seated on two chairs. The others are no longer sitting on two chairs, they are sitting on the chair that China offers them.

There is another expression - the king is played by the entourage. All these people, including Putin, and even more so Lukashenko, have acted as the entourage of the "Chinese emperor". I don't think they were all particularly happy about it.

For most of them it was a moment of truth, they understood perfectly well that with this trip to China they were making a demonstrative choice in favor of China, not in favor of the United States.

The historical process brought them all to a fork in the road - either you communicate with the Americans now, or you are in Xi Jinping's entourage.

- You cannot say about Lukashenko that he does not want to communicate with the Americans.

- He would be glad, of course, to communicate not only with the Americans, but also with the Europeans. However, he does not have that opportunity.

-I don't think he didn't realize what position he was demonstrating with this trip. Those who are conventionally with America did not go there. It is worth remembering, he has been in power for many years.

Maybe after Trump's call he had some euphoria, maybe he was hoping for something. However, he knows very well that American politics will still change.

It is only he and Putin who have remained in their positions for many years, in the United States everyone can lose elections.

- Let's say that everything has become clearer with Lukashenko's position: he is looking towards China. But what does this mean for Belarus?

- In the short term, everything will remain as it was. There will be no big Chinese money anyway. However, neither will there be American, European, or even Russian money.

-I just don't understand why China needs it. 15 years ago Belarus was important for it as a member of the EurAsEC, through which it was possible to get duty-free promotion of goods in Russia. That is such a corridor to enter the Russian market.

Second - the road to the European Union. Everything was logical. Today everyone realizes that the EAEU is half-dead, and Belarus has nothing to do with Europe.

From China's point of view, even Russia is a dwarf, and Belarus is probably one tenth of a dwarf.

- And greenhouses with tomatoes, which Lukashenko allegedly negotiated with Chinese businessmen?

- Perhaps he offered what he knows best. But that's just for laughs. Apart from those tomatoes, there was nothing else.

Strategically, in the more distant future, there are still two options for the development of events. Assuming that Lukashenko will have to leave the system, everything may go according to the Russian scenario, when he will be replaced by a person even more loyal to Moscow.

But a complex process of gradual liberalization of the political system and a change in the mood of people may still begin.

Belarusians in the country note that because of repression now it is even scarier than in 2020. The situation is such that people who have lived in the same area for 20 years are now afraid to talk to each other.

Not even in the late Soviet Union was it like this. People are tired, and I don't exclude that in case of Lukashenko's absence even his associates will come to a kind of analogy of 1953-57, when the then elite decided, if simplified, that they wouldn't kill each other anymore.

I think many people in Belarus are ready for it. They are also ready for a phenomenon reminiscent of the Soviet perestroika, when Gorbachev will come and it will be necessary to restart relations with the West.

All this will require a more liberal political process inside the country. Naturally, with the release of all political prisoners.

- I understand that you give the first scenario more chances?

- Unfortunately, it is more likely, because it is easier to implement. I proceed from the fact that the Russians have long been trying to establish relations with a wide enough circle of Belarusian elites so that at the right moment they would have an immediate opportunity to ensure a transition of power that would be favorable to them.

Moscow will be ready to act within a few hours, while the West will gather dozens of meetings to express concern. But a week later, it could be too late.

On the other hand, the second scenario is not a utopia. Let's say if you asked me about Russia, I wouldn't even consider such a scenario.