Is The Course Respite Over?
- 29.09.2025, 8:46
What awaits the dollar in the coming days.
Last week was characterized by minimal volatility in the Belarusian currency market. All the main news background in the form of decisions of the Central Bank of Russia and the U.S. Federal Reserve came in the beginning and middle of the month, by the end of September the market came to the equilibrium state. Financial analyst myfin.by Mikhail Grachev tells what exchange rates can be expected in early October.
The week of calm
Last week, the U.S. dollar exchange rate decreased by an insignificant -0.16% to USD/BYN 3.0380 at the close of the week. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar exchange rate has declined by -12.54%. Trading volume returned to the average value of $62.172 million.
The rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange changed even less, -0.02% for the trading week and +8.66% since the beginning of the year. The closing rate of RUB/BYN 3.6389 per 100 Russian rubles. Last week's trading volume in Russian ruble was around average with RUB 17,275.840 mln.
VAT hike and currency rates
As we noticed, the main news background in September was in the first half. However, last week the financial authorities of Russia made a decision that may affect the exchange rate formation of the Belarusian and Russian currency market in the coming months and at least until the end of the year.
The matter concerns the proposal of the Russian Ministry of Finance to raise the value added tax (VAT) from the current 20.0% to 22.0% from January 1, 2026. This will allow, according to the heads of the financial department, to receive additional revenues to the Russian budget of more than 1 trillion rubles and thus significantly reduce the budget deficit.
There are well-founded fears that this could lead to higher inflation, but according to the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Mrs. Nabiullina, it will be short-term. At the same time, she draws on the previous experience of raising VAT in 2018, but then the Russian economy was in a slightly different mode. How it will be this time - time will tell, and the VAT increase may become an alternative to devaluation of the ruble to restore foreign exchange earnings.
Weekly Forecast
In the global financial market, last week was marked by new historical highs of protective assets in the form of gold and silver. December gold futures rose to 3814.4 USD/Oz in the middle of the week. An ounce of silver rose above 46.55 USD/Oz by the end of trading last week with a good prospect of testing the 50.0 USD mark. The price of gold has been growing by more than 40.0% since the beginning of the year.
In view of the above, significant changes in the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble are unlikely in the coming week. The last two days of September, the dollar exchange rate may decline against the background of the end of the tax period in the Russian Federation. From the beginning of October we follow the news of the labor market in the United States. The main block of statistics will be released on Friday at 15:30 Minsk time, so the reaction of the Belarusian market will be delayed. The dollar exchange rate is still around USD/BYN 3.0350.