Russia Gave The Belarusian Economy A "surprise"

• 28.09.2025, 16:43

A huge collapse in industry.

Belarusian industry in August collapsed by ≈4.2% against the same month last year - it took away ≈1 p.p. of annual GDP growth, writes "Belarusians and the market".

In the manufacturing sector itself, the collapse is even stronger - ≈5.8%. Moreover, a significant decline is recorded in every region and Minsk, which means problems in most industrial spheres. Among them oil refining suffers - apparently, the volumes of gasoline supplies to Russia against the background of its temporary deficit in the Russian market were not large. Only the food industry is likely to maintain a high level of output.

Many products remain lying in the warehouses of enterprises. A comparable level of stocks relative to output was observed only during the global financial crisis of 2009 and in the period of 2012-2014, when overheating of the Belarusian economy exceeded 5% of potential GDP on average. This means that even if the external demand for our goods revives, the industry is unlikely to be able to produce more than now.

Russia does not take

The fact that fewer of our goods are going to Russia now is indirectly evidenced by the figures on wholesale trade and cargo turnover - a decline everywhere. At the same time, freight transportation has fallen to the bottom - in August, only 60% of the volume that was observed in 2021 was transported.

The temporary closure of Poland's border with Belarus in September is likely to worsen the statistics even more.