Belarusian Cement Producers Want To Be Expelled From The Russian Market

• 25.09.2025, 10:05

The two of them were getting crowded in the marketplace.

While Lukashenko is demanding that the government give him the economy in general and industry in particular, the main Belarusian ally continues to generate problems and troubles. The "military" VAT increase has already become a fact, and the ally is trying to be driven out of the Russian market. Today, Belarusian cement is getting the brunt of it. There is too much of it going to Russia, Russian competitors believe, writes planbmedia.io.

The main "sanctions" axiom of the Belarusian propaganda: sanctions are not political, but economic. They were imposed not because Belarus or Lukashenko are bad. Sanctions are an attempt to strangle competitors.

But the experience of Belarusian-Russian trade and economic cooperation proves that sanctions are sanctions, while an attempt to strangle a competitor is life. Today, Russian cement producers have announced an initiative to fix the import ceiling at the level of no more than 1.5 million tons per year and establish the exclusive right of Russian producers to supply under state contracts.

And the proposed measure is not aimed at "unfriendly" or generally enemy producers. Its target is the largest supplier of cement to Russia, Belarus.

In January-August 2025, the volume of supplies of Belarusian cement to Russia reached 1.6 million tons with total imports of 2.6 million tons. The share of Belarus is 3.86% of the total cement consumption by Russia. Moreover, this share has changed only slightly over the year - in January-August 2024 it was 3.73%.

Two in the market is tight

Why the concern? The share of cement from Belarus in the market of the Central and North-Western (NWFD) Federal Districts in 2027 may reach 35%, increasing 3.5 times by the end of 2024, the consulting company SMPRO forecasts. In physical terms, imports will increase from 2.39 million to 7 million tons. This, of course, is not certain, but only if Minsk launches mothballed facilities.

In this case, according to "Kommersant," the surplus of cement production in Belarus is now 1.6-2.3 million tons per year. The plants are operating at full capacity. And if all the lines, stopped since 2010, are restarted, the surplus will reach 7 million tons.

But since 2022, Belarus can't sell cement to Europe because of sanctions. That leaves Russia. And in order to hold on to this market, they have to lower prices and give commodity loans. But consumption is falling and competition is growing. And choosing between its cement industry and the neighboring one, Moscow will obviously prefer the former.