ISW: Kremlin Repeats The Scenario Of War With Ukraine
- 19.09.2025, 12:51
Analysts have indicated the country where this is happening.
Analysts at the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russia is implementing a coordinated information campaign threatening Finland. This is the same scenario Moscow acted on before attacking Ukraine.
One day, a series of events occurred in Russia indicating a new threat. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that revanchism was "literally gaining momentum" in Finland and that the neutral mask had allegedly "fallen off" from the country's government. This is stated in the ISW report for September 18.
In addition, the Russian president's special representative for environmental protection and transportation Sergei Ivanov said that relations with Finland "practically do not exist" and will not improve in the foreseeable future, because the country is a NATO member and "actively calls for strengthening [its] eastern border."
In Ivanov's words, the Finnish population is allegedly dissatisfied with their government, and the lack of tourists from Russia has led to "depopulation" and a weakened economy in the country's southeast. At the same time, the first deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, Alexei Chepa, said Finland's membership in the alliance has caused Russians to stop buying real estate there.
Analysts noted that Ivanov is part of Russian leader Vladimir Putin's inner circle. During his career, he has been deputy director of the FSB, defense minister, deputy prime minister and head of the presidential administration. Now he is likely to be used to amplify threats to Finland.
Moreover, statements by Lavrov, Ivanov and Chepa have amplified Russian state media.
"Similar language in statements by Ivanov and Chepa, as well as the amplification of their comments by the TASS agency, indicate that this is a concerted information campaign by the Kremlin directed against Finland," ISW noted.
Analysts emphasized that senior Kremlin officials have stepped up threats against Finland in recent weeks. In doing so, the officials are using language that reflects Russia's false justifications for a full-scale attack on Ukraine.
"ISW continues to believe that the scenario Russia is now using to threaten NATO mirrors the scenario Russia previously used to create information conditions justifying its aggression against Ukraine," they added.