Offshore Exports Of Oil Products From Russia Collapsed By Almost 20%
- 19.09.2025, 11:12
After Ukraine's strikes on oil refineries.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure, which have been ongoing since early August, have hit oil product exports. From September 1 to 15, 3.3 million tons of fuel were shipped from Russian ports to foreign markets, 18% less than in the same period last year and 16% less than the July average. This follows from data from the Center for Price Indices (CPI), cited by "Kommersant".
The drop in shipments was particularly noticeable on September 11-15 due to the aftermath of the attack on the port of Primorsk, from where up to 300,000 barrels of diesel per day are exported. According to Reuters sources, shipments were temporarily suspended as a result of damage to one of the port's terminals. Unscheduled repairs of oil refineries (refineries) also affected exports, the CiC said. As calculated by Reuters, only in August Russia lost 17% of oil refining capacity, or 1.1 million barrels per day due to Ukrainian attacks. According to Kommersant's source in the industry, oil refining fell to 4.96 million bpd on September 1-16, and on September 16 - to 4.75 million. JPMorgan analysts noted that the figure in Russia has not fallen below 5 million bpd since April 2022.
It is technically easier to restore port infrastructure for transportation of raw materials than to repair refineries, said an expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor Yushkov. He noted that the decline in oil refining could lead to an increase in crude exports. According to Reuters, Russia has already increased planned export volumes through the ports of Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk to compensate for disruptions at Primorsk. Ust-Luga will have to handle at least 2 million tons, up from the previous plan of 1.5 million tons, while Novorossiysk is expected to export 3.1 million tons - the maximum in recent months.
The possibility of exporting light oil products at the moment is determined not by external demand or supply economics, but by the balance of production, domestic consumption and regulation, said Kept partner Maksim Malkov. According to him, under the current conditions, it is not worth counting on an increase in supplies.
The domestic market with high seasonal demand remains a priority for producers of petroleum products, says the director of the Central Petroleum Center Roman Sokolov. He predicts that by the end of September, the supply of petroleum products from the Baltic and Black Sea basins will not exceed the level of August, when about 3.3 million tons of diesel fuel and 901 thousand tons of fuel oil were shipped.