Political Analyst: Fitzo And Orban's Hopes For Trump Are Crumbling

• 18.09.2025, 15:39

The White House is demanding a complete phase-out of Russian oil purchases.

U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a tough ultimatum to NATO countries on Russian oil purchases, embarrassing the prime ministers of Hungary Viktor Orban and Slovakia Robert Fitzo.

How could the U.S. president's demand for a complete withdrawal from Russian oil hit Fitzo and Orban? The website Charter97.org talked to Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigory Mesejnikov about this:

- First, we should say that the broader context is very important here, because, on the one hand, this is how it should be: members of the EU, NATO, the Western community of democratic countries should refuse to buy energy raw materials from Russia. And, by the way, this is already happening. I recently saw a statistic showing that the European Union's purchases of gas and oil from Russia have dramatically decreased.

But it still amounts, if I am not mistaken, to billions. Perhaps even several tens of billions of euros. EU countries are still buying Russian oil, especially Slovakia and Hungary. If you look at the share of Russian raw materials in the energy trade of Hungary and Slovakia, it remains quite high. In principle, Trump's demand is in line with pan-European policy.

But on the other hand, it's clear that Donald Trump is a transactional politician, and I think it sounds like, "If you don't do it, we won't do it. We're not going to impose sanctions on Russia, we're not going to impose sanctions on states that trade with Russia."

It seems to me that this is, first of all, not really a realistic approach, because some time is needed, even if Slovakia and Hungary made that decision today. I support such a decision, but it would still take time to repurpose. The other thing is that time was lost. There is a catch here. And it seems to us, people who follow foreign policy, that this could be another move by Donald Trump to keep the United States from taking drastic steps. It could be a distraction or an excuse. But we'll see how this is framed further: how seriously America will actually take it, whether it will demand, whether there will be negotiations. Although it is difficult for me to imagine how this will be organized exactly in terms of coordination with the United States. In any case, all European countries need to disconnect themselves from energy trade with Russia.

With regard to the impact on Slovakia and Hungary, of course, re-routing energy supplies may involve temporary economic difficulties. It would take time, even if it were decided today to give up oil and gas. By the way, there has already been a reduction with gas, and not quite yet with oil. It may affect the overall situation, but I honestly don't expect Orban and Fitzo to do so. They will be looking for steps that will allow them to continue to benefit from Russian supplies.

There is a certain irony here. It is Viktor Orban, and more recently Robert Fitzo, who have always positioned themselves as politicians who have allied with or shown sympathy for Trump. Fitzo was at a conference in Washington after Trump took office and was demonstrating his closeness to him.

This, of course, does not give a good impression, especially now in Slovakia. Demonstrating sympathy for Donald Trump and trying to get rid of the anti-Americanism that used to characterize the Smer party looks questionable. Maybe now they will return to this anti-Americanism again and will not consider Donald Trump as a politician who can solve everything. Robert Fitzo has said several times that Trump and Putin will reach an agreement, end the war, and the European Union will be excluded from the process. And that this is even fair: they say that the EU behaved wrongly, supported Ukraine, and should have sought peace. Trump, in his opinion, is striving for that, and will come to an agreement with Putin.

It is now clear that these were utopian visions. And if Trump does press on, it will be unpleasant for both Putin and Orban. But energy repurposing can only have positive consequences in the long run. Yes, there will be temporary disadvantages, costs, infrastructure investments will be required, but the level of energy security, especially for Slovakia, will increase. We will become more independent from Russia. And Russia has always used raw material supplies as a weapon - an instrument of political, economic and hybrid pressure. So the refusal from Russian raw materials is to strengthen the position of the recipient countries.

- If the EU decides to completely abandon Russian oil, can Fitzo and Orban go into open conflict with Brussels? But the fact is that this is the common position of the European Union. The political decision to refuse supplies has already been made. Fitzo came into conflict with the EU when he called for pressure on Zelensky to resume gas supplies. But that has not happened. The EU said it would look for alternatives. Slovakia was not supported in this, because the decision to refuse has already been made.

Fizo, I think, is capable of going into conflict with the EU. Especially since we have elections in two years, but the situation is all the time pre-election. Now the rallies are going on, and Fitzo can use them as a trump card in communicating with voters. Among his supporters, attitudes toward Russia are more positive than the national average, while distrust of the West and Ukraine is higher. So he can argue that economic problems are created by the EU's unfair treatment of Slovakia, and he is fighting it.

- In Slovakia, meanwhile, mass protests are not subsiding. What are the key demands being made by the protesters? Can we say that they are no longer only against "austerity measures", but also against Fico's pro-Russian orientation?

- There are protests against the pro-Russian orientation all the time. This started already a few months after the government took office, at the beginning of 2024. There are anti-democratic excesses associated with it. And this year the theme of pro-Russian policy and refusal to support Ukraine sounds especially strong.

Now dissatisfaction with economic policy has been added to this. The so-called "consolidation of public finances" is, in fact, belt-tightening. It's a convenient target for the opposition, and people understand what it's all about. But the rallies continue with other demands: Slovakia is Europe, support for Ukraine, an end to flirting with Russia.

So far, the protests are gathering quite a few people, but not a critical number to change the government's policy. Although their number is growing: in Bratislava last week there were about 10 thousand, and a few days ago - already 18 thousand. Until recently, the rallies were organized by civic associations and initiatives. But last week political parties took the lead, they started actions aimed at coordination and alliance building. By their composition we can understand which parties will be included in the future government, if there will be elections - early or planned.

Now political parties are actively involved. In some cities the demonstrations are still organized by civic associations, but parties are also getting involved there. Therefore, I expect the number of participants to grow.