Andrei Sannikov: Lukashenko Trembles for His Own Hide

• 16.09.2025, 16:11

The West has all the levers for the release of Belarusian political prisoners.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and the country's President Karol Nawrocki held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. During the conversation, which took place on September 15 near Warsaw, the topic of Belarus also came up. On the eve of the West-2025 exercise, Poland closed its border with Belarus, disrupting a land corridor for Chinese cargo to Europe.

Can Beijing put pressure on Lukashenko to stop hybrid attacks on the border and secure the release of political prisoners? This and other questions Charter97.org asked the leader of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Andrei Sannikov:

- Beijing is not interested in this. This is not its sphere of interest. I mean hybrid attacks and, even more so, political prisoners. We know that China has a repressive regime that keeps millions of people in camps. So it is strange to expect the Chinese authorities to sympathize with political prisoners. Beijing is only interested in trade. And this was the reason for Wang Yi's visit to Poland and meeting with Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and President Karol Nawrocki.

Wang Yi is one of the most experienced not only diplomats but also political figures in China. Therefore, I think there was quite a substantive and serious conversation here. When we say that Beijing is not interested in solving these problems that we are concerned about, at the same time it should be noted that indirectly the practical interests of the Chinese can affect the release of political prisoners and the cessation of provocations on the border.

That is confirmed by the fact that as soon as Poland closed the border, a small group of political prisoners were immediately released. And immediately a Chinese minister arrived with some serious talk. For the first time in six years. Apparently, they agreed on something, because the minister promised to support Poland's candidacy in the G20 based on the results of the negotiations, which were held behind closed doors and even without access to the press.

Apparently, some advances were given from the Polish side to take into account China's interests in removing obstacles to trade, because after all, China's exports to Europe are quite large through Belarus by land - somewhere, if I'm not mistaken, 12-13%. This is quite a lot. Such absolutely pragmatic interests of China can play into the fact that there will be increased pressure on Lukashenko's regime not to create such obstacles to Chinese exports. The Europeans and Americans should take advantage of this and demand the release of political prisoners as the main condition for removing the barriers that Lukashenko himself creates by brutal repression.

- What, in your opinion, was the Kremlin's goal in the drone attack on Poland, and what should be the response of Poland and NATO to stop such provocations?

- Now everything should be viewed through the prism of militaristic exercises that Russia is conducting, including on the territory of Belarus, but not only - in the Barents Sea, in the Baltic Sea, in the Kaliningrad region.

And this drone attack also comes into play here, because what kind of "exercises" can there be during a war? Russia is waging a war, so any actions related to troops, troop movements, and equipment are one of the manifestations of military operations. That is, certain scenarios are being practiced. Again we hear about nuclear weapons, which they threaten to bring to the territory of Belarus once again. Again we hear about the deployment of Iskanders and Oreshnikovs equipped with nuclear warheads. The same with drones.

I am convinced that this was a reconnaissance operation. Look at the way they flew: zigzagging all over the country to check routes, to identify vulnerable areas in Poland. So I was surprised by the reaction of both NATO and Poland - that "it was all accidental", that "Lukashenko warned". Lukashenko warned, fearing for his own skin, because they could have simply hit the territory of Belarus and his residences in response.

But this reaction shows that NATO was not quite ready to apply Article 5, that is, to take collective action to protect one of the Alliance members. They decided to limit themselves for the time being to information sharing and reduce tensions a bit. I think such statements were made in order not to sow panic, to calm the public.

But I hope, nevertheless, that some kind of plan of response in case of repetition of such attacks (and I have no doubt that they will happen) has been developed in Brussels. I think that this plan includes, among other things, retaliatory strikes on the territory of the places from which these drones were launched, on the facilities that were launching sites. This is a very serious incident. It is not even an incident, but a militaristic action, which is a practice of a military scenario.

- What, in your opinion, made Lukashenko release a group of political prisoners on September 11 and take them to the Lithuanian border? What steps are necessary for all prisoners of the regime to be released?

- All this talk that sanctions are "harmful", that sanctions "don't work"... is nonsense and very cowardly. It was only the sanctions that made it happen. Because if there had been no sanctions, Lukashenko would never have even talked about the release of political prisoners. He is a hardened serial criminal, a tyrant who destroys people in the direct, physical sense. Why would he just spare them?

He moans about sanctions - primarily European ones. He hopes to lift them with the help of the Americans, who have agreed to release a very small group of political prisoners. He hopes to use them to lift the European sanctions, which are more painful for Lukashenko's regime.

Look at what Lukashenko is doing: he is again dragging the West into bargaining. I have calculated: they have released a little more than 60 people in two months. This means that if the release of the number that Trump mentioned (and let's focus on the figure of 1,400 political prisoners, which did come out of the mouth of the President of the United States) proceeds at this pace, it will take all three years - until the end of Trump's term. That absolutely cannot be allowed to happen.

And we know that there are many more prisoners than 1,400. About 10,000 - by most conservative estimates. And the figures that even official sources give out allow us to judge about the catastrophic humanitarian situation.

First of all, Lukashenko is bargaining: he determines whom and when to release. Secondly, at the same time he puts people in jail. That is, by releasing them, he puts them in jail. Today he cynically, mockingly threw Igor Ilyash, husband of Ekaterina Andreeva, behind bars for four years. Everyone expected that in the last group of hostages released from the concentration camp will be and Katya, a beautiful, sincere journalist and person, but the inhibited tyrant compensates for his inferiority with such bullying. Not only Katya was not released, but also her husband Igor was imprisoned. He wants to sell this practice again: "I will recruit new hostages for trade, and you won't do anything to me. This should not be allowed.

We see that this is not liberation, but forced deportation. We see that the agreements on the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Nikolai Statkevich, a patriot and national hero, have not been fulfilled. He was simply mockingly returned to prison. A man who wants to live in his homeland, in his home. These things should not go unnoticed by the West. There should be very tough actions, and they are not there yet. Human rights activists have also reacted too sluggishly.

What should be done to get everyone released? Tough measures, tough sanctions. There are no other ways. All the levers are there. Now what we talked about in connection with Wang Yi's visit, even China can be used as a pressure factor to force Lukashenko to release all political prisoners. Really release, not forcibly deport.

People should decide their own fate and determine the degree of risk. They should be absolutely free in their choice. Let's not forget that political prisoners are not criminals. They are absolutely innocent people who are being held as hostages and are now trying to be exchanged. This is the tragedy of a concentration camp in the center of Europe. It is comparable to what is happening in the most despotic regimes in Africa or in China.

It is simply impossible to tolerate such a situation in the center of Europe any longer, because it aggravates the situation with the war in Ukraine. A dictatorial regime that allows people to be abused is also an accomplice to Russian aggression.

I repeat once again: all the levers are there, we just need political will. Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize in Ukraine, but he will not be able to resolve this acute crisis in this way, especially with the methods he is trying to use between Russia and Ukraine. If all political prisoners are released - not 1,400, but absolutely all those thousands of political prisoners in Bedarusi - then I will fervently advocate for a prize for President Trump.