Vladimir Fesenko: Lukashenko Will Be Pressured Not Only Through China
- 16.09.2025, 16:12
Europe expects escalation on the border with Belarus.
India joined the Russian-Belarusian exercise "Zapad-2025". The participation is symbolic - 65 people - but Western media are calling the move a crossing of "red lines."
What does this signal mean? The website Charter97.org talked to Vladimir Fesenko, a well-known Ukrainian political scientist and head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, about this:
- This is India's signal to the Americans. If you keep pressuring us, we will get even closer, including in the military sense, to Russia and Belarus. And these countries are also China's allies, which is no less important.
- This is also a signal to the Europeans. If you act against us like the Americans do, keep in mind that we will support those countries that you see as a military threat to you.
- Why is India now sending such signals?
- Just the other day, Trump, in his rhetorical political game with Europe over sanctions against Russia, proposed such a cynical, manipulative idea that will not be realized. But that's Trump's style.
He told the Europeans: if you want sanctions against Russia from me, first impose secondary sanctions against India and China. Formally, this applies to the purchase of Russian oil by these countries.
Sounds about right. But we see that the secondary sanctions of the Americans against India were actually imposed not only and not so much because New Delhi buys Russian oil, but, most likely, it was a tool of pressure for India to open its domestic, agricultural market to the U.S.
We see the opposite result. India has not stopped buying Russian oil. Yes, there are fluctuations there, maybe they will agree and gradually begin to reduce purchases. That would be a positive result. But so far there is no direct result from Trump's pressure. On the contrary, there is a negative political result - India's rapprochement with China and Russia, including in the form of this symbolic participation in military exercises.
But the Europeans are offered to impose more sanctions against China, while the Americans themselves are not going to impose sanctions against Beijing. On the contrary, they agree on trade issues, they agreed to buy TikTok, the trade truce continues. So unfortunately, from Trump's side, this is a cynical game.
In any case, whatever the motives of the Indian government, I think it's a mistake. A big mistake on their part. Firstly, these actions show that India under the present government is not a reliable and consistent partner.
Yes, there are trade contradictions, but they are also between the US and Europe. This is a situation in the modern world that can arise between partners as well. But if you so demonstrate your readiness to send even symbolically your troops to the territory of a country that is fighting against Ukraine and violating international law, it is a signal that you too, let's say, turn a blind eye to the violation of international law and are ready to play the same cynical games.
That is why it reduces the level of trust in India. First of all, from our side. I think, from those European countries that border Belarus and Russia.
I do not expect that this symbolic participation in military exercises will lead to any alliances, strengthening of the alliance between India and Belarus. Probably, there is some trade turnover between these countries, but they are far from being each other's main trading partners.
Secondly, Belarus is one of China's active allies. For India, this is also a factor that will not mean an opportunity for further rapprochement.
- Yesterday, China's diplomatic chief Wang Yi flew to Poland to Poland. He communicated with the country's deputy prime minister and foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski. Ahead of the exercise, Warsaw closed its border with Belarus, blocking Chinese transit to Europe. Poland wants to get Lukashenko to end the migration crisis and release Polish citizens from prison. Will it succeed in pressuring the Belarusian dictator through Beijing?
- Closing the border is also a demonstration that there are risks of escalation. Poland, the Baltic States, Finland, already know that both Belarus and Russia use migrants as a tool of hybrid warfare and to put pressure on neighboring countries. In this case, it is very relevant.
I believe that the actions of the Polish country are absolutely logical, because the recent incident with the infiltration of Russian drones into Polish airspace created a very loud international scandal and demonstrated serious risks for Warsaw and other NATO countries.
This is a signal from Poland: if you violate our airspace so rudely, there are military exercises going on right now, so we are insuring ourselves. The second problem is migrants.
So here, I think Polish diplomacy has conveyed to the Chinese that if Belarus wants the border to be open, then there should be appropriate constructive actions. I think the pressure on Lukashenko will come not only through China, but also through the US. Note, when this incident in Polish airspace happened, Belarus immediately started claiming that "we warned the Poles." "We even shot down drones there that were flying towards Poland."
This was not accidental. These were demonstrative gestures. "We don't want to quarrel with you." Closing the border, of course, has a very strong economic impact on Belarus. The Chinese can find other options to deliver their goods to Europe. Not only through this route.
Yes, of course, there may be a certain increase in price, but there are other options. But now it is very important for the Polish side to show: do you want this trade to be carried out normally through Belarus? Okay. But then explain on your fingers to Lukashenko that he should follow a certain rule, he should not wage a hybrid war against us.
I will say that in fact the visit to Wang Yi is very important, because I think China has begun to realize that they have overreached with their military parade. Of course, they had to show off, to show how cool they were. But they, let's say, created a lot of negative emotions towards China. And, by the way, pushed Putin to increase aggression.
Putin decided to imitate Si Jinping, too, decided to demonstrate "how cool he is", only in the form of military action and in the form of provocation against Poland. Now China, I think, wants to soften this situation, to show that they are not moving away from peacekeeping.
I think we will soon see China's initiative, again reminding us that they are for peace, for ending the war in Ukraine. Perhaps there will be such signals through Sikorski.
I do not exclude that now China will begin to smooth out the negative emotions, the tension, the fears that arose in Europe in relation to China after the parade in Beijing on September 3.