Warsaw Has Used The Most Painful Point To Pressure Minsk
- 11.09.2025, 12:26
A transportation collapse awaits the regime.
On Wednesday, September 10, Polish Minister of Interior and Administration Marcin Kerwiński signed an order to close the border with Belarus. The document will come into force on the night of September 11-12, completely paralyzing passenger and cargo flows on the most important for Belarus western direction.
It seems that Warsaw has engaged the most painful point to pressure Minsk, writes the website "Belarusians and the Market".
The Polish authorities have waited for the moment to take revenge for the years of migration crisis on their eastern borders. The complete closure of the border with Belarus has always been a trump card up Warsaw's sleeve. But the Russian-Belarusian exercises "Zapad-2025" allowed to pull it out, having finally received the approval of the EU and NATO partners. These exercises, which start on September 12 and end on September 16, became the official reason for Warsaw's untimely closure of all checkpoints on the Belarusian-Polish border.
The sharp change of tone of Minsk, which "participated" even in repelling the attack of Russian drones on Poland, says that the neighbor's answer hit the mark. Moreover, it hit one of the most painful points for the Belarusian economy. And he also once again questioned the contractual capacity of the Belarusian authorities in the eyes of one of its main allies - China.
The fact is that checkpoints and border terminals on the territory of Poland are the entrance and exit for more than 80% of the volume of goods flow in transit, export and domestic market of Belarus in its transport communications with the European Union.
Transit
The most important link in ensuring transit through Belarus has been and remains rail transportation.
Last year, according to analytical resources, the total volume of transit by BelZhD to/from the EU amounted to about 6.6 million tons. They decreased by about 10%. But it happened at the expense of cargo flows in the direction of Latvia and Lithuania.
But in the Polish direction, the transit flow has not only not decreased, but also increased by about 100 thousand tons. Its total volume last year was estimated by experts at 5.2 million tons, which is about 80% of the total transit volume that passed through BelZhD to/from the EU during the year.
The growth of transit to the EU through Polish checkpoints was provided partly by cargoes moved from Latvia and Lithuania, but mainly by the flow of goods to the EU from China.
Only at the terminals of Polish Malaszewicze (near the checkpoint "Terespol/Brest") was oriented 80% of the container flow, delivered to Europe through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus from the transport hubs of Xi'an, Chengdu, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Yiwu and Wuhan. According to Alexei Grom, General Director of the operator of this route, OTLK ERA, transit from China to the EU in 2024 almost doubled year-on-year. It amounted to 412 thousand TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEU), while a year earlier it was only 216 thousand TEU.
"The year was quite difficult, but in many ways became a record for us," - said, commenting on the results, Alexei Groma. The entire turnover along this route (including the return traffic from the EU to China) exceeded 746 thousand TEU, surpassing last year's figure by 11%.
How important this route is for BelZhD is evidenced by the fact that it provides over 90% of all its transit. And transit tariffs are the main source of earnings for Belarusian railway workers.
And most importantly, despite the efforts of the organizers of an alternative route for the delivery of Chinese goods to the EU - the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey) - the latter cannot yet compete with the Eurasian direction. In 2024, the route through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus accounted for 90% of trade turnover, while the Trans-Caspian route accounted for only 8.5%.
Export
Poland is still the main entry point for Belarusian exports to Europe.
Last year, export rail shipments from Belarus to the EU grew by almost 20%.
And the main role in receiving and distributing these cargoes (fertilizers, construction products, oil cakes, etc.) belonged to Poland. According to analytical resources, 75% of all goods (2.1 million tons out of 2.8 million) delivered by Belarus by rail to the European Union passed through it.
Another point: the increase in the volume of BelZhD imports to Polish stations amounted to almost 50% by 2023.
Import
Finally, it is Poland that is the largest exit outpost for reverse deliveries of Western goods to the Belarusian market.
In rail transportation to our country last year, the largest shares were taken by hardware, prefabricated and construction cargoes. Due to sanctions restrictions, the volumes in this direction were falling. But the traffic remains dominated by Poland.
The same railroad in 2024, about 70% of all imports from the EU to Belarus passed through it. This is about 400 thousand tons of cargo.
What's next?
Night Poland, in addition to the three railway checkpoints, is also closing two checkpoints for trucks.
In the last two years, there has been a redistribution of trade turnover from Europe to Russia and Central Asian countries. But even with a noticeable decline in export-import volumes, Poland remains the main link between Belarus and the EU in this segment as well.
Now it is difficult to calculate how much it will cost Belarus at least five days' vacation, in which Warsaw, provoked by the exercises and the detention of the "spy" Carmelite, sent several tens of thousands of Belarusian railroad workers, road carriers and logisticians.
But, undoubtedly, it is an industry collapse. And it seems to be not millions, but tens of millions of dollars in lost profits for companies and taxes for the budget, penalties and fines from contractors.
Losses of this segment in Poland are not comparable, but can be significant too. Therefore, local businesses and European exporters, importers and owners of logistics hubs in Duisburg, Mannheim, Hamburg and Bremerhaven on the Chinese route will make every effort to keep the border blockade at bay.