Should We Expect A Dollar Spurt In The Fall
- 1.09.2025, 10:47
Prediction from an expert.
Autumn does not promise a cooling in the financial market. A number of interesting events are taking place in both the global and Belarusian domestic currency markets. What exchange rates to expect in the first week of the fall, tells myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in the traditional forecast.
Dollar Rate Decrease
Last week, the Belarusian ruble-dollar exchange rate continued to fluctuate in a relatively narrow corridor from USD/BYN 2.9825 at the beginning of the week to 2.9731 by the end of the trading five-day period. At the end of the week, the dollar exchange rate fell by -0.20% in the Belarusian market, while at the beginning of the year the rate softened by -14.41%. It is noteworthy that on the last day of the month, the volume of trading sharply increased to $32.136 million, and in total, the dollar trading volume amounted to $85.651 million for the week.
The rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian fx market remained virtually unchanged. During the week in nominal terms it remained at the level of RUBBYN 3.6933 per Br100, having decreased by -0.01%. The trading volume for the week amounted to Br15,721.670 million, which corresponds to the average values.
On the Russian financial market, the dollar rate remained near Br80.0 per "buck" without significant fluctuations. However, as it often happens due to the early closing of Belarusian trading, by the end of trading on Friday, the dollar rate in the Russian market fell to Br79.90.
It is not excluded that this strengthening of the dollar will be confirmed in the Belarusian market in the first days of the week.
In general, the Russian ruble feels quite comfortable in the domestic market. The domestic demand for rubles significantly exceeds the demand for foreign currency and there are no refuting arguments to this fact. In addition, the four-day summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which began in China, confirms the trend of capital migration in the opposite direction to the dollar and the euro.
Important news of the coming week
The global financial market this week may form an important news background on the eve of the September meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. After the speech of Fed chief Jerome Powell in Jackson Hill, there is a high probability that the Fed may go for an interest rate cut. The dots over "i" may be settled on Thursday and Friday after the publication of labor market statistics (15:15 and 15:30 Minsk time on September 4 and 5, respectively). These data could be the drop that will overflow the Fed's patience.
The same statistics could push the price of gold to new heights, which the metal climbed to at the end of last week. The price of futures on New York's SOMEX firmed above $3,530 an ounce on Friday night and last week closed at all-time highs. Against the background of geopolitical uncertainty, weak data from the United States and on the eve of the fall demand for metal in India, gold is close to breaking through the resistance at $3600 per ounce.
Currency Forecast
Therefore, this week the dollar rate in the Belarusian market is likely to remain around the current values with minimal upward or downward movements. The Russian ruble has chances for some strengthening on the Belarusian currency market, but the overall picture is without significant changes