Dmitri Bondarenko: Two Grandfathers On A Bench Discussing What They Can Still "seize"
- 6.08.2025, 17:16
We are witnessing the agony of Putin's regime.
Echelons with Russian military personnel have started to arrive in Belarus under the guise of preparations for the "West-2025" exercises. The Kremlin has repeatedly used such maneuvers as a cover for aggression.
How likely is it that Zapad-2025 will be a prelude to a new phase of war - be it a strike on northern Ukraine or a hybrid attack on the Baltic states and Poland? This is what Charter97.org talked to the coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Dmitry Bondarenko.
- While there is a war in Ukraine, any exercises and concentration of Russian troops in Belarus, as well as bringing the Belarusian army to a state of full combat readiness, are already part of this war. Ukraine will have to react to the growth of the Russian-Belarusian grouping by strengthening its military presence in the north and weakening it in other directions. That is the element of war.
I don't really believe in attacking the Baltic states or NATO right now. Especially in the context of Trump's "rampage". In such a situation, the Kremlin will not go for a direct confrontation with the Alliance. Especially since the West has an effective lever - not military, but economic: blocking Russia's Baltic ports.
We know that trade flows from Russia pass through the Danish straits and major sea channels such as the Kiel Canal. More than 50% of Russian oil is transported by sea from the Baltic. Closing the Baltic straits for Russia would be a huge blow to the Russian economy. Therefore, these exercises are primarily a threat to Ukraine.
- What provocations are possible on the part of Russia and Lukashenko's regime?
- Let me remind you that in 2021, when the Zapad-2021 exercises were held, the invasion began not during the exercises, but later, a few months later. Now the permanent phase of the presence of Russian troops in Belarus may start again, which will last for months. This is the main threat.
As for the plans - Lukashenko is not planning anything. Only Putin is planning to stay in power at any cost. But he is a failed manager who has lost everything: in economics, geopolitics, strategy. He has failed in the Middle East. Russia has been building its policy there for decades, starting with the USSR - and it all ended in defeat. Neither Saddam Hussein nor Bashar al-Assad could be helped by Putin at crucial moments. Because he has no resources.
He lost the Far East as well. The vast territory is home to 8 million Russians - and the Chinese, they say, already have several million. China actually uses the port of Vladivostok as a domestic port. More than 500 million people live in China's northern provinces, while only about 30 million Russians live beyond the Urals. Putin is simply surrendering Siberia to China.
The next major defeat is the Caucasus, where the Russian Empire has had a policy for hundreds of years. One would have to be a "genius" to unite Armenia and Azerbaijan under anti-Russian statements. Again, Putin can't do anything because Erdogan has the most powerful Turkish army and all Russian forces are thrown into the war against Ukraine.
The Baltics? At the beginning of the last century Finland was part of the Russian Empire, Sweden was neutral. Today, look at a map: to the left and right of the Gulf of Finland are NATO countries. Ust-Luga and St. Petersburg are sandwiched between Finland and Estonia. Putin can't even twitch here.
So two grandfathers are sitting on a bench at Valaam, reasoning that they will "capture" someone else. We are witnessing the agony of Putin's regime, as we once witnessed the agony of Brezhnev's regime. But it cannot be ruled out that in his marasmus Putin will take steps that will bring misfortune to others. Just as Brezhnev and his politburo unleashed the war in Afghanistan - with a million dead Afghans and tens of thousands of dead Soviet soldiers.
- What should the West do now to prevent provocations or invasion? Only build up its forces?
- Should the West take responsibility for its own security. First of all, Europe. In principle, the U.S. is pursuing the right policy: pushing Europe to defend itself. But in the transitional period, while the European defense industry is unfolding, we must not cut ties within NATO.
Flexible mechanisms of cooperation are needed, both within NATO and in the trade and economic plane between the U.S. and the EU. For example, the tariff agreement between the EU and the U.S. stipulates that Europe will buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products. This is beneficial to both sides. But at the same time, it is a huge blow to Russia, which has been supplying gas and oil to Europe for decades. That market is now lost, and for a very long time.
It is also critical to increase support for Ukraine. Ukraine is a rich country: lithium, rare earth metals, oil, gas, fertile soil, strategic location. If Russia seizes most or all of Ukraine, it will have at its disposal not only resources but also human potential - Ukrainians who can be used in a future war against the West.
Putin is already destroying Russia. His course is leading to the disintegration of the Russian Federation. But in order to stay in power for another year or two, he can take the craziest steps. That is why the West should act in advance - Russia's defeat in Ukraine could solve everything. Including preventing China's aggression in its region.