"The Kremlin Is Beginning To Realize That It Has Lost."
- 25.08.2025, 12:03
Putin fears Western guarantees of Ukraine's security.
Moscow is afraid that Kiev will get reliable security guarantees. Because a successful Ukraine is the biggest threat to the survival of Putin's regime.
European Commissioner for Security and Space Andrius Kubilius said. On his website, he responded to statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The latter warned that the Kremlin would not agree to collective security guarantees for Ukraine if they were agreed without Russia.
Kubilius explained what was behind Lavrov's theses
"What did Lavrov want to say? That Russia wants to provide security guarantees to Ukraine? Or that the Kremlin is afraid of security guarantees for Ukraine that the Western community can provide?" - the Lithuanian politician asked.
He emphasized that the only reason why the Ukrainians needed non-aggression guarantees was Russian Federation. And it is enough for the Russian Federation to simply stop the war and not start it again if they want to give real security guarantees for the Ukrainian state.
"Russia does not need to negotiate guarantees with anyone.... Russia can simply give up its aggressive policy," the European Commissioner emphasized.
But, as he admitted, this is unrealistic under the current Russian government. "This is why we need to ask: why is the Kremlin afraid of Western security guarantees for Ukraine? Because it will make it harder for Putin/Lavrov to plan a new aggression against Ukraine," Kubilius said.
"The reality in Russia is that Putin believes his regime will be threatened if Ukraine becomes more secure and able to develop its economic and social success through European integration. Because Ukraine's success with its inspired strength for ordinary Russians is the biggest threat to the survival of Putin's regime. This is the logic of the Kremlin's greatest threat analysis," the author explained.
He believes this is why the Russian dictator started the war. And that is why Putin and his minions will not agree to real security guarantees for Kiev.
Kubilius noted, "The 'coalition of the willing' should not take into account whether Russia agrees to the plan that would be implemented in the event of a peace agreement.
"Western leaders recently in Washington were able to demonstrate unprecedented unity and leadership on Ukraine issues. Including on security guarantees. This frightens the Kremlin regime. That's why Lavrov has spoken out so aggressively. Because the Kremlin is beginning to realize - they have lost. Security guarantees will pave the way for Ukraine's future success," the politician believes.
He added that the Russians are actually threatened by the Putin regime itself, not by NATO or Ukraine. On the contrary - Ukraine's success "could be a real inspiration for the Russian people."
"Inspiring Russian citizens is what the Kremlin fears. The Kremlin is really afraid of the Russian people, of the possibility that they can be inspired to strive for freedom. And to be inspired to want to live in a normal Russia of the future," the European Commissioner wrote.
"Putin has started a criminal and stupid war against the success of Ukraine. And he will lose. Ukraine will be successful. Russia will be left with the Kremlin's stupidity. Lavrov has given clear proof of this," Kubilius finished his reflections.