"This Is A Real Breakthrough."

• 19.08.2025, 20:00

What guarantees can Ukraine get from the West?

A meeting between Vladimir Zelensky, Donald Trump and European leaders took place in Washington. The main topics of the talks were security guarantees for Ukraine, the terms of a future peace agreement and a possible meeting between Zelensky and dictator Putin.

What real results did this meeting bring? About this the site Charter97.org asked the candidate of philosophical sciences, head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications Maksim Pleshko:

- We can say that there was really a change in the vector of politics and international agenda. After Alaska, everyone was in pessimistic expectations, in Ukraine there was an anxious mood. But here we woke up in the morning, read the news and breathed a sigh of relief.

With Alaska as a backdrop, it looks like a breakthrough in diplomatic efforts and a big step towards peace in our region. In Ukraine, we have already stopped believing in any deadlines and promises. We are skeptical: we look at the deeds. But serious developments have really taken place here.

The most important thing is a substantive conversation about security guarantees. The second is a real proposal to hold a bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Putin. And the third is a trilateral meeting between the leaders of Ukraine, the United States and the Russian Federation, which will take place when the first two stages have passed.

That is, if Zelensky meets with Putin, there will be a trilateral meeting. This is very important. What I personally liked - it's not just about talking about guarantees, but specifics. For example, Marco Rubio, who was appointed to lead the safeguards team, said a very good point: the strongest security guarantee for Ukraine is a strong army. Ukraine has a strong and experienced army, but we need more precision and long-range weapons.

We understand: this is the only way to deal with the Russians. When they are afraid of a retaliatory strike, when they know that their missile attack will be followed by a strike on their facilities, that their invasion will be met with a harsh response - only then do they retreat. Otherwise, no documents are worth the paper they are written on. Therefore, the best guarantee is a strong Ukrainian army. And it is very good that the US realizes this and has started to talk about it out loud.

- Security guarantees are being discussed - financing of the army, US military aid, drones. How effective is this mechanism for deterring the Russian Federation? Can it be compared to Article 5 of the NATO charter?

- No one really knows how Article 5 works. It has never been tested. It was in the context of possible Russian aggression in the Baltic States, including through Belarus, that assessments were made that someone could "test" NATO's Article 5. There is no direct obligation there that states immediately go to war. There are consultations, assistance and so on.

Nobody knows how this NATO article actually works. So I wouldn't compare the guarantees for Ukraine to Article 5. I would compare them with the format of relations that the US has with Japan and South Korea.

- Can the Western countries or Ukraine raise the issue of Belarus in the negotiations: demilitarization of the country, withdrawal of Russian troops?

- Now we have an acute phase of war in Ukraine. It needs to be stopped, frozen, stopped. There is the Belarusian problem, it is in a stable chronic state, but without relapses.

So it is obvious that it is not at the top of the agenda now. But the American representative visited Lukashenko. The latter released Sergei Tikhanovsky and other political prisoners. There was a phone call. So it is obvious that some communication is going on. And, perhaps, such issues will be raised, because the President of Ukraine has repeatedly spoken about the importance of the Belarusian direction. For us, Ukrainians, security in the Belarusian direction is obviously important. It is very important that there are no Russians there, no Russian influence. This is the main thing.

Now, for example, what is happening? As part of preparations for the West-2025 exercise, a lot of Russian troops have already entered Belarus. They are trying to hide their number, because if there are more than 13 thousand, UN observers must be present.

Russian specialists - reconnaissance, UAVs and others - are already accommodated, renting apartments. And often in cities bordering the EU. There is information that they do not behave in the best way there, treating Belarusians in a condescending manner: they say that we are fighting for the Fatherland, while you are sitting back. There are negative tendencies. The Russians try to hide the presence of troops in Belarus: they disperse them to different firing ranges, place them on civilian facilities. But it is impossible to hide the scale.

The main interest for Ukraine is the reduction or complete absence of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus. Because they pose a threat to Ukraine, the EU countries and the Belarusians themselves. This is a factor that draws Belarus into the danger and possibility of war. We can see from the drones and the current situation that Belarus has already been drawn in, with troops standing on its territory. In general, the presence of Russian troops in Belarus is definitely undesirable for Ukraine. It is important for us that it should be less.

Even under Lukashenko's regime, Belarus should be as far away from the Kremlin as possible. And in the strategic perspective, I repeat, Ukraine's national interest is a free, democratic Belarus, oriented towards Europe and friendly to Ukraine.