ISW Trashed The "guarantees" From Putin
- 18.08.2025, 9:45
The head of the Kremlin cannot be trusted.
Putin's proposed Russian "legislative" commitment not to invade Ukraine and Europe again cannot be trusted, experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted.
First, Russia has already violated previous similar international commitments twice, and second, Putin has demonstrated that he is free to change Russian law at will. Indeed, Putin has largely ignored even the Russian Constitution to support his political goals, manipulating the vote for constitutional amendments (2020) that allowed him to run for president again in 2024 and potentially remain in power until 2036. Both of Putin's invasions of Ukraine (2014 and 2022) also violated Russia's obligations under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum to respect Ukraine's independence and sovereignty within its internationally recognized borders.
In addition, Russia has consistently violated international agreements prohibiting aggression against Ukraine, including the Minsk agreements. Therefore, Putin's current promise that Russian aggression against Ukraine is impossible is neither a concession nor a credible guarantee. There is no evidence that Putin will adhere to any such commitment or law after the peace agreement, ISW notes.
Details regarding the international security guarantees for Ukraine that Putin is allegedly willing to make remain unclear for now, but the Kremlin may be trying to revive its demands for security guarantees from April 2022 - which would neutralize such guarantees for Ukraine. According to Axios, during his talks with Trump, Putin expressed a willingness to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and mentioned China as one possible guarantor. Such an idea echoes Russia's "Istanbul" proposals in April 2022, under which it was China, Russia and several Western states that were listed as security guarantors for Ukraine. At the same time, Russia demanded that such states could assist Ukraine in the event of a future attack only after all guarantor countries agreed to such a solution. But China is a close ally of Russia, which greatly assists the Russian military effort and Russia's defense industrial complex, so the PRC would not be a neutral guarantor, ISW noted. And having Russia on the list of "security guarantors" would make such arrangements meaningless.
So if any future peace agreement includes provisions like those put forward by Russia in 2022, it would allow the PRC or Russia to veto any decisions to help Ukraine in the event of another Russian invasion.