Foreign Policy: The Attack On Iran Is A Warning To Beijing

• 1.08.2025, 14:47

China should not expect an easy operation to take over Taiwan.

Israel's attack on Iran not only demonstrated the vulnerability of Iran's air defense system, but also underscored China's passivity as a contender as a global player. While Washington promptly intervened and demonstrated resolve, Beijing limited itself to statements and diplomatic clichés, writes Foreign Policy (translated by Charter97.org).

Although the conflict took place far away from Taiwan, its implications directly concern Beijing. The U.S. intervention has shown that U.S. President Donald Trump, can act quickly and harshly if an American reputation or ally is threatened. This casts doubt on the Chinese calculation of a quick and bloodless operation to seize Taiwan.

In addition, the conflict has exposed the limitations of China's alliances. Despite close cooperation with Iran, from oil purchases to military assistance, Beijing has not provided real support to Tehran. Even in the face of security threats to shipping in the Red Sea, China has chosen to protect only its own interests, leaving other partners to fend for themselves.

All of this reinforces distrust of the China-Russia-Iran "axis," based on a temporary convergence of interests but lacking strategic depth and credibility. For the Gulf states and especially Taiwan, the conclusion is clear - when war breaks out, the US is still able to intervene, and China's promises evaporate.

Beijing can take comfort in the fact that might and preparation still decide the outcome of battles. But if it ignores the lessons of Tehran, Taiwan could be the next mistake - with disastrous consequences.