Syria Is Gaining Status As The New "land Of Opportunity" In The Middle East
- 5.07.2025, 9:36
The conditions for the beginning of the process of economic reconstruction have arisen.
"I love you too much. Yes, too much - that's why we give so much," is how Donald Trump showered praise on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a visit to Riyadh in May.
Although bin Salman has not sung love songs to the US president, he knows how to give gifts. The most important of these is a promise to invest more than a trillion dollars in the United States during Trump's presidency. In return, the prince received a historic handshake between Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and a promise to lift sanctions imposed on Syria since 2011.
On Monday, Trump honored his pledge and signed an executive order to lift sanctions "on institutions that are essential to Syria's development, the work of its government, and the rebuilding of its social fabric," as articulated by the U.S. Treasury Department.
This will allow Syria to begin the long process of economic reconstruction, sign agreements with other countries and investors who have so far avoided working in Syria except to provide humanitarian aid, take back some seven million refugees who fled the country, and return millions of internally displaced people back to their homes.
At the most conservative estimates, Syria will need about $250 billion to $300 billion in aid and investment to rebuild its economy. Some of that amount will come from the coffers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, and the rest from international financial institutions in the form of grants and loans over decades.
With the lifting of sanctions, Syria is gaining status as the new "land of opportunity" in the Middle East, and not just in terms of al-Sharaa. Turkey has already begun the process of returning Syrian refugees, more than three million of whom live on its territory. Egypt hopes to supply it with gas, and Qatar has announced its intention to supply it with gas via a pipeline through Jordan.
The Jordanians intend to sell electricity to Syria and from there to Lebanon, while Iraq and Lebanon are exploring the possibility of rebuilding and operating an oil pipeline from Kirkuk through Syria to Tripoli. Lebanon is also preparing to return more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees to their homeland, reopen overland trade routes between it and Syria, Jordan and Gulf countries, and re-establish its banking activities in Syria.
In the meantime, foreign oil companies, mostly American, are hoping to develop oil fields in the north of the country, which are now under Syrian Kurdish control. According to an agreement between al-Sharaa and Kurdish forces leader Mazlum Abdi, the fields will be handed over to the state.
The economic gold mine, so far theoretical, however, awaits the outcome of political and diplomatic struggles and conflict resolution that will determine Syria's chances of becoming a regional crossroads state. As experts suggest, the most important questions concern the agreements or arrangements Syria will sign with Israel and how Turkey will influence them.
After the fall of the Assad regime, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took the position that Israel should cease its military activities in Syrian airspace and withdraw from all the territories it has seized in the eastern Golan Heights and southern Syria. The level of tension in the conflict between Turkey and Israel, which peaked last April when Israel attacked bases in Syria near places where Turkey intended to settle, has eased and Azerbaijan has mediated a military coordination mechanism, but suspicions and tensions have not disappeared.
Turkey, which has emerged as an important voice in the Syrian presidential palace, has already begun helping al-Sharaa establish a national army. It has promised to provide it with arms and ammunition and, according to Turkish sources, intends to build factories to produce military equipment in Syria, in addition to planned investments in construction and infrastructure.
The discussion in diplomatic and media circles about Syria's possible accession to the "Abraham Accords," and even earlier "interim agreements" on security coordination between Israel and Syria, is causing concern in Ankara. This stems from fears of Israel's continued land retention in Syria, the establishment of close relations between Israel and the Druze minority, most of whom live in southern Syria, and the creation of "patronage ties" between Jerusalem and the Kurdish minority in northern Syria.
"Erdogan is beginning to realize that he may lose his status as the sole master in Syria," a former Turkish diplomat told HaAretz. - At the same time, he recognizes the fact that he cannot currently oppose Trump's policy of pushing forward agreements between Syria and Israel. It is important to remember that this process is supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which helped Erdogan get out of the economic crisis, invested billions in Turkey and can now get political compensation in Syria."
The Turkish diplomat believes that it is against this background that the rhetoric of Erdogan, who has recently refrained from making statements against the normalization of relations between Syria and Israel, is changing. According to the diplomat, Erdogan "expects to receive appropriate compensation for this from Trump."
That compensation could be Turkey's return to the project to develop and produce F-35 aircraft, from which it was excluded in 2020 after buying Russian S-400 air defense systems. That possibility was discussed this week by US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack, who is also Trump's special envoy for Syria and Lebanon.
In an interview with Turkey's Anadolu news agency, Barrack said: "I think President Trump and President Erdogan will tell US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to find a way (to solve the problem) and a solution may be possible by the end of the year."
Turkey has also suggested to Trump that it will take responsibility for leading the war against "Islamic State" in Syria instead of Kurdish forces. By doing so, Erdogan would "free" the US from continuing the support and funding it provides to the Syrian Kurds, an issue that has been a source of explosive friction between the two countries.
A Turkish diplomat assessed that Erdogan's "web of considerations on the Syrian issue have the twin poles of hostility and fear of Israel on the one hand and a desire to become a central player who will influence Trump's policies in the Middle East and beyond."
"A positive outcome," he continues, "could be improved and perhaps even restored relations between Turkey and Israel in exchange for the political benefit it would derive from a close relationship with Trump. Of course, it is too early to hold one's breath in anticipation of the realization of this optimistic prediction and should first await the finalization of agreements with Syria.
It is true that al-Sharaa is an important partner on the emerging map of regional influences, but its political decisions depend on external forces that are larger and more powerful than it. On the other hand, in addition to the border agreements between Syria and Israel, it can play a central role in ending the border conflict between Israel and Lebanon. Under their recent cease-fire agreement, the two countries agreed to begin the process of demarcating the land border, which requires overcoming 13 points of contention, including a decision on the status of the so-called Shebaa Farms.
From the Israeli and UN perspective, these "farms" are Syrian territory, while Lebanon claims they belong to it and demands that Israel withdraw from them. For years, Lebanese governments have asked Bashar al-Assad to provide them with an official document confirming that these farms are under Lebanese sovereignty, but have never received one. The issue is expected to come up again in discussions between the Lebanese and Syrian governments, and the decision on the future of Shebaa Farms will be largely in the hands of al-Sharaa.
Tzvi Barel, "HaAretz"