Israel Is More Powerful Than Ever
- 5.07.2025, 9:14
What does it lack to become a regional power?
The war with Iran is widely believed to have radically shifted the balance of power in the Middle East in Israel's favor. But that doesn't mean Israel is going to lay down its arms anytime soon. Even if we do enter an era of Pax Israelitica, peace will have to be maintained by force.
In other words, Israel may not seek hegemony, as is feared in the Arab world and Iran - it does not claim military and economic dominance in the region. But Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu does not seem to share Donald Trump's vision of a new Middle East, tired of war and focused on economic development. In his view, Iran and its proxies must be rebuffed again and again, Syria remains an Islamic threat, Hamas is not yet defeated, and Hizbullah must be watched like a hawk. Turkey cannot be trusted either.
As Netanyahu said in his victory speech to end the war with Iran, "We are not going to take our foot off the pedal. We must complete the campaign against the Iranian axis, defeat Hamas, and secure the release of all our hostages - both alive and dead."
In short, he sees Israel as a regional "strong player" responsible for maintaining order (at least the kind of order that ensures Israel's own security - it will not intervene in Libya or Yemen) in a chronically unstable region.
Minimum what this means is the need to maintain a large army and human, material, and financial resources sufficient to deploy troops wherever needed, even as far away as Iran.
If great power status were determined solely by how hard you could hit an enemy without getting hit back too hard, Israel could claim it. But the real test of strength involves many more factors. These include traditional metrics like troop and tank numbers, as well as modern metrics like technological superiority, economic resilience and soft power, such as how a country is perceived by public opinion in the world.
Can Israel play the role of a regional power? Let's look at these factors in order.
Weapons and people. In the 2025 Global Firepower rankings, based on traditional metrics - number of soldiers, tanks and fighter jets - Israel ranks 15th in the world. This is an impressive result, given that the 14 countries higher in the ranking have significantly larger populations, territory, and (with the exception of Pakistan) economies.
More importantly (since Israel should not compare its power to Indonesia or Canada), it ranks 2nd in the Middle East region - after Turkey. Israel has dealt Iran a serious blow, even though it is only one rank ahead of Iran in the Global Firepower index - which suggests that in modern high-tech warfare, strength is no longer as tied to numbers as it used to be.
Endurance. The days when Israel had to make sure that wars were short and businesslike are gone. Today, Israel's population is about 10 million - two and a half times what it was 40 years ago - and the economy has grown nearly 13 times. Israel has been at war in one form or another for 20 months, and yet the economy has suffered no serious losses.
That said, Israel's capacity to fight a long war, much less an endless one, is not unlimited. Today, the army, especially the reservists, are strained, and the stockpile of anti-missile missiles has reportedly been severely tested after 12 days of Iranian shelling.
There is no question that an adversary like Iran, with a population nine times larger and a territory 75 times larger, has an endurance advantage.
Technology. Along with a top-notch air force and intelligence, technology is Israel's strongest asset. Since the embarrassing technological failure on Oct. 7, they have proven their worth in battles with Iran and Hizbullah. Israel is among the world's technological powers, albeit closer to the bottom line: it simply cannot compete in scale and resources with the US, China and Europe.
In the Belfer Center's 2025 Critical and Advanced Technology Index, which assesses the potential of the top 25 countries in areas such as AI and space, Israel ranks 19th with a score of 8.2. That's higher than anyone else in the region, but surprisingly not by much - Iran is in 23rd place with a score of 4. Judging by the results of the war, Belfer missed something: Iran failed to realize its technological potential.
Economy. A strong economy is important not only for sustainability at home, but also as a source of its own armaments and a tax base to fund the army.
As with other parameters, Israel scores above its weight, but still remains a "lightweight." Last year's wars raised military spending to 8.8% of GDP - only Ukraine's is higher. This year, between the war with Iran and the renewed operation in Gaza, the Defense Ministry expects a budget overrun of 30 billion shekels. Add to that the cost of rebuilding domestically. The economy will not be able to withstand such a strain for long.
Military independence. Without belittling the IDF's achievements over the past 20 months, it is worth recognizing that without the $18 billion in military aid from the U.S. in the first 12 months after Oct. 7 and the steady supply of critical weapons, none of this would have been possible. Israel's military industry is impressive, and the government plans to expand arms production domestically, but dependence on imports will remain. Israel can produce more shells and bombs, but only the U.S. can supply the F-35 and quickly replenish depleted stocks.
In the end, as Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have made clear each in their own way, Israel cannot fully pursue its military policy on its own. It has become more dependent on American aid than at any time since the Doomsday War.
Mild power. This may be Israel's weakest point. Netanyahu seems to think that Israel has enough friendship with those who sit in the Oval Office representing the Republican Party. But as a small country dependent on global trade, investment, imported weapons and even air defense assistance, Israel needs much broader ties.
Public opinion in the United States, and especially in Europe, has turned against Israel, and it is already manifesting itself - in the form of arms embargoes, boycotts and threats to downgrade diplomatic relations. The government's argument that Israel is on the front lines of the great battle to save the West is increasingly ringing hollow, especially against the backdrop of the Gaza massacre and the blunt statements of Israeli ministers. In those soft-power characteristics that affect a country's standing in the world - cultural influence, international appeal - Israel ranks only 46th in U.S. News and World Report's Best Countries ranking.
In his victory speech, Bibi assured that "we are not complacent and self-righteous - quite the opposite." But signs of postwar hubris are already visible. Israel is stronger militarily and economically than ever. But it is still too small to truly play the role of regional "strong man."
David Rosenberg, "HaAretz"