Natalia Radina: Lukashenko Should Remember The Words Of The US General About Kaliningrad
- 31.07.2025, 10:45
NATO will respond to provocations against the Baltic States.
Natallia Radzina, editor-in-chief of the website Charter97.org, became a guest of YouTube channel of the well-known journalist Evgeny Kiselyov.
The main topics of conversation were the drone that flew into a Minsk house on the night of July 29, the exercise "West-2025" and a possible attack on the Baltic States and Poland from the territory of Belarus.
Natallia Radzina expressed the opinion that the drone incident is a natural consequence of Russia using the airspace of Belarus for shelling Ukraine:
- This is a failure of Belarusian air defense. If you look at the statistics, there was a record in July: about 59 incidents with Russian drones that flew to Ukraine and were recorded in Belarus. These drones have already fallen in Gomel, in Kostyukovichi, in Khoiniki, but now a drone fell not in Gomel region, but directly in Minsk. Moreover, it crashed into a residential building almost in the center of the capital - in Frunzenski district on Matusevicha Street. Miraculously, there were no casualties, because the drone really carried a military charge and was filled with TNT. It fell on the parking lot, and cars were damaged. If the drone had exploded directly hitting the building, there would have been casualties. In this yard, by the way, there is a kindergarten.
We see the consequences of the fact that Belarus under the rule of dictator Lukashenko, unfortunately, is a direct participant in Russia's war against Ukraine. But these are the inevitable consequences of this participation.
For fans of conspiracy theories, I can say that yesterday I paid attention to the information that in Minsk a factory for the production of drones is being secretly built. If you remember, during a meeting in the spring, Putin and Lukashenko agreed to build a drone factory in Belarus.
According to the new information, this enterprise is being built just in Minsk, in the same Funza district where the drone fell. It's on Yanka Mavra Street, not far from Matusevicha Street. How can you build a military drone factory right in the center of the capital - I can't understand it, because it's a direct threat to the residents of Minsk. After all, such facilities are a legitimate target for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
But I will not claim that this is a Ukrainian drone, because there have been no statements from the Ukrainian side. It is quite likely that it is still a Russian "Shahed", but the authorities tried to blame Ukraine for everything.
Could the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises "Zapad-2025", which will be held in our country in the fall, lead to provocations against the Baltic States and Poland and attempts to break through the Suvalki corridor? Natallia Radzina does not rule out such a possibility:
- The leaders of Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia say that there is such a threat. In September, when the maneuvers "West-2025" are scheduled in Belarus, the Baltic States and Poland will also hold exercises. In Poland, they will be called "Iron Defender". More than 30 thousand soldiers of the Polish army will take part in them, and all kinds of troops will be involved - the navy, aviation, special purpose units, and territorial defense.
In Lithuania they are still looking for a drone, which flew into the country's territory for the second time in July. This time, the defense minister said that further provocations are expected and UAVs will fly in more often during exercises, so air defense systems are being moved to the border and mobile fire groups are being formed to combat drones.
From a common sense perspective, Putin does not have the resources today to wage war on multiple fronts - both against Ukraine and NATO countries. But given that Putin is a psychopath, we can assume that he can take advantage of the fact that Europe is not ready for war. If we imagine that not just one or two drones but a wall of UAVs will fly at Lithuania, will that country's air defense system be able to repel this attack?
Here I am encouraged by a very tough statement made by the commander of the US Army in Europe, General Christopher Donahue. He said that if there is an attack on the Baltic States, Kaliningrad will literally be wiped off the face of the earth.
In particular, he said, there will be strikes on Iskander-type ballistic missile launchers in Kaliningrad, Baltic Fleet ships and infrastructure, S-300/S-400 air defense systems, and Russian troops. In case it happens from the territory of Belarus, I think that the targets, except for the fleet, will be the same.
If troops move from the territory of Belarus, if there is a missile-drone strike from the territory of our country, there will be a strike on military facilities and accumulations of Russian and Belarusian troops. And this can stop both Putin and Lukashenko, on whom little depends.
Ukrainian experts, for example, say that during these exercises there may be provocations against the Baltic States to divert attention, and a new front may be opened against Ukraine - from the north, just from the territory of Belarus. Perhaps there will be fighting in the Kiev region or strikes in the Volyn, Rivne and Zhitomir regions.
Is Lukashenko interested in aggravating the situation? A Belarusian journalist believes that an attack from the territory of Belarus on the Baltic States or Ukraine would be a disaster for the dictator:
- Nothing depends on him. Lukashenko can only pray that Putin will not use the territory of Belarus against the Baltic states and Ukraine. But the fact is that it is inevitable. If the war continues, if Putin is not stopped now, the Belarusian bridgehead will certainly be used by him.
And for Lukashenko it is, of course, a disaster, because he understands perfectly well that if there is a threat to NATO countries from Belarus, then there will be strikes and, possibly, NATO troops will enter the territory of the country.
Evgeny Kiselev asked whether Lukashenko can appeal to the West to stop the entry of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus. Natallia Radzina rules out such an option:
- I'm afraid he won't have the political will to appeal, because in this case he will inevitably have to lose power. He is on such a short leash with Putin that he has no chance to act independently today.
30 years Lukashenko has been in power thanks to Russia, living on the Kremlin's resources. Countless military treaties and groupings of Russian troops have deprived the Belarusian army of its independence. Today it is controlled from the Russian General Staff. How long will Lukashenko live if he turns to the West for help? I would welcome such a step, but Lukashenko is afraid of the West, for him there are "enemies" there. Therefore, the dictator finds himself between a hammer and an anvil, and it is his own fault.
Could Lukashenko have discussed with U.S. General Keith Kellogg, who came to Minsk on June 21, guarantees of Belarus' non-participation in Russia's new aggressive actions? The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org believes that one should not believe the dictator's promises:
- I think that with Kellogg, in addition to the possibility of releasing a number of political prisoners, they also discussed Belarus' participation in the war against Ukraine. I can assume that Lukashenko persuaded Kellogg, as he did Ukrainian presidents Peter Poroshenko and Vladimir Zelensky, that no Russian or Belarusian soldier would ever set foot in Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.
But we understand the price of his words. I think that Kellogg warned him about the risks of Belarus' participation in this war. Moreover, let's remember the background against which this visit took place. At that time Israel was striking Iran, depriving Russia and Lukashenko's regime of an ally, significantly weakening Tehran. Of course, Lukashenko was frightened. But will he be able to keep his word? We understand very well that he is not his own master today.
Evgeny Kiselev quoted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk as saying that in the nearest future the war will be stopped. Natallia Radzina believes that there are no prerequisites for this today:
- I don't know where the Polish Prime Minister got such a conviction that the war could be about to end, but of course he has more information.
But I don't see any signs today that Putin will stop and Ukraine will accept the ultimatums that the Kremlin is putting before it today - "demilitarization", "denazification", recognition of the territories occupied by Russia. We understand that if these decisions are made, Russia will inevitably "eat" the rest of Ukraine and then go to war on Europe.
Can Putin be stopped by the 100 percent duties that Trump threatens to impose in 10 days against countries that buy Russian energy resources? I'm not so sure. I mean, you've seen China's statement that it will not give up buying Russian oil and agree to these 100 percent duties.
How can Putin be stopped in that case? The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org cites several effective tools of pressure:
- We need to give Ukraine as many weapons as it needs without dosing it. We need to impose real tough sanctions against Putin, stop buying Russian oil, gas, liquefied natural gas. Secondary sanctions are a good step on the part of the U.S., but the European Union should also join these secondary sanctions.
More importantly, the EU should give up Russian oil or at least set a price threshold of 30 euros for it, as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky requested. Give up completely Russian gas, which Hungary and Slovakia continue to buy, and give up liquefied natural gas from Russia. We know that the big buyers of LNG are France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands.
In this case, if you completely cut off Russia's oxygen, it could stop the war, because Russia's economic potential is small. You and I once already compared, the GDP in nominal terms of the European Union and the UK is 22 trillion euros. Russia's nominal GDP is 2 trillion. And Putin has put his economy on military rails, which is killing it.
Evgeny Kiselev pointed to the news that Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low for his second cadence - 40 percent. Natallia Radzina believes this is a natural result:
- In seven months of his presidency, Trump cannot boast of any successes. The war in Ukraine was not finished by him in 24 hours. These trade wars with the whole world, threats to annex Greenland, Mexico, Canada, have sobered his electorate.
We see a lot of criticism of Trump today and from not only Democrats, but also Republicans and the Republican press. I hope that this will sober up the US president and he will start to act more decisively against the same Russia, which is one of the main threats to the world today.
This is what I associate with Trump's recent tough statements that he intends to act decisively against Putin, he does not intend to talk to him anymore and will tighten sanctions against the Kremlin regime. Trump cares about public opinion, and he has to reckon with it.
If the U.S. acts in concert with the EU both in supporting Ukraine and in putting sanctions pressure on the Putin and Lukashenko regimes, there is every chance of winning. We understand perfectly well that the most important thing that hinders the West today is the fear of Russia's military defeat. But the war will not stop unless Putin is defeated. The US and Europe can deliver a crushing blow to Russia, even despite Russia's ally in the form of China.
The Belarusian journalist said how she sees Russia's defeat:
- First of all, there is certainly no need to be afraid of hitting Russian territories today, right up to the Russian capital. If the war escalates further, Ukraine has the right to strike with long-range missiles. Of course, it must get these long-range missiles today, because so far it does not actually have them.
Secondly, if the provocation against Western countries continues, it is quite possible that NATO troops will be introduced into Russian territory.
What will this defeat be like? Ukrainian publicist Vitaly Portnikov says, "we are not interested in the disintegration of Russia, we need a democratic Russia." We realize that Russia is an empire, there is no such thing as a liberal empire.
Do the Caucasian republics or Tatarstan have the right to self-determination? If Russia becomes a liberal empire, these republics will want to become independent, and the center will have to accept that. Russia's nuclear potential, which scares many people, should be taken under international control and withdrawn from the country. And after that, let new states with nuclear-free status be created.