The Milosevic Way

• Konstantin Eggert
• 29.07.2025, 16:53

On the failed policies of Putin and Lavrov.

If I were Vladimir Putin, I would fire Sergey Lavrov. The Russian foreign minister spoke on July 28 at the Territory of Meanings youth forum in Solnechnogorsk near Moscow. There he shared with the specially selected "patriotic youth" this consideration: "For the first time in history, Russia is fighting alone against the entire West. Both in World War I and World War II we had allies. Now we have no allies on the battlefield. Therefore, we must rely on ourselves. We must not allow either weakness or slackness."

Will Putin remove Lavrov?

Let's leave aside the question of the fine line between "weakness" and "slackness." As well as the question of why "go to war with the entire West" at all? Let us consider the confession made by the fourth longest-serving minister at the head of the foreign policy department of the Russian Empire/USSR/Russian Federation. For more than 20 years he has occupied the office on Smolenskaya Square - and he has not acquired a single ally? True, in the same speech, the minister does mention North Korea and Belarus as such. But then it turns out that they are some "inferior" allies?

Sazonov and Pokrovsky, Milyukov and Tereshchenko provided Russia with allies in the First World War. Stalin's handmaiden Vyacheslav Molotov did well after World War II was started by Hitler and his own boss. Lavrov, it turns out, failed. After all, the supreme commander-in-chief himself, the "national leader" and so on and so forth, can't be guilty of anything, as they say, "by definition," can he?"

At the same time, Putin's minister praised Donald Trump for "pragmatism" two whole times. Explanation: the Russian regime hopes that the White House will continue contacts with the Kremlin and will not impose new sanctions. However, the speech to Lavrov was written by aides before the US president announced the shortening of his ultimatum to Russia. Perhaps Trump will soon become a "warmonger" too.

And Lavrov also sang desperate dithyrambs to "great India" - against the backdrop of New Delhi's stated readiness to refuse to buy Russian oil if America imposes sanctions against countries that import Putin's hydrocarbons. In short, the minister's speech sounded like a pathetic mixture of bravado and fear.

Of course, Putin will not fire Lavrov. Not because Sergei Viktorovich is competent - even the case of the regime's international defense, he loudly failed. And not because the dictator is ashamed to kick out a servant who, in fact, is just an executor of his geopolitical whims. And not because there are no candidates for Lavrov's chair - for example, Putin's longtime deputy minister Sergei Ryabkov has continuously and publicly demonstrated an eagerness that clearly goes beyond his direct job duties.

Lavrov will remain in his post because Putin is afraid - what if the change of minister is perceived as a signal of readiness to change policy? And this, in turn, will be interpreted as "weakness," not only in the world, but also, God forbid, within the regime.

The problem not only in diplomacy, but also in the entire politics of today's Russia is that the fear of showing weakness is a sign of real weakness. Putin may even realize this, but the fear of appearing weak is still stronger.

Matvienko's fake success

The inability to change course in the fourth year of aggression looks increasingly strange, especially against the background of the absence of military successes. And not only in the eyes of the West, but also for the "Putin-firsters" of the global South, those Narendra Modi and Si Jinping. The latter is very much hoping to organize a meeting between Putin and Trump in Beijing to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. But so far only received a messege from Peskov that the Kremlin "does not rule it out." "Do your best, guys, and we'll see."

Against this background, Lavrov will present the much-publicized trip of Valentina Matvienko and her entourage of slash-and-burn Slutskys to Switzerland for an empty interparliamentary conference as a diplomatic triumph. However, for all the public's justifiable indignation at the spinelessness of the Swiss, the conclusion is self-evident: if this is a success, then what does failure look like?

The Russian regime, lulled by the passivity of Russian society and deprived since 2022 of permanent contacts with the leading Western countries, is pursuing, if you think about it, an absolutely mediocre policy, even if we proceed from its, the regime's, benefit. Interestingly, for many years I have regularly heard the same phrase from diplomats I know, Western and not only: "You may disagree with Lavrov, but he is still a professional". It's been two years since I last heard it. Even Russia's anti-Western friends are tired of hearing lies about "Ukronazis," "forced SWO," and "saving the Russians." The rhetoric of Putin, Lavrov and others has become almost indistinguishable from the slogans of the Slobodan Milosevic regime in its final years.

History never repeats itself, and no one knows what fate awaits the Russian dictatorship. But its foreign policy is increasingly disconnected from reality. Does the "professional" Lavrov realize this? Perhaps. But that is now completely irrelevant.

Konstantin Eggert, "Deutsche Welle"