Trump's Accelerated Ultimatum
- 29.07.2025, 11:56
Now there are two ways things can unfold.
US President Donald Trump, after months of personal contacts with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, has abruptly shortened Russia's deadline for a peace deal in Ukraine. It is now ten to twelve days rather than fifty. According to the American media, the words of the President of the United States indicate deep disappointment. But will they be followed by action? And what will they be?
It doesn't take a big analyst to realize: the catalyst for the 10-12 day statement was the US-EU agreement. But, I repeat - it is only a catalyst for certain processes (it seems that Donald Trump allocated those fifty days for the agreement with the EU, and the fact that the agreement has already been signed accelerates other processes).
What is in the underwater part of this "iceberg", we can only guess. But let's try to put forward not even versions, but hypotheses regarding further actions of the President of the United States.
First of all, I do not believe in any drastic actions of Donald Trump to escalate the situation with shipping in the Baltic Sea. The likelihood that they will start detaining Russian tankers en masse as early as August is minuscule. Also, no one will pass the Graham Act (the so-called law on hellish sanctions) tomorrow.
Secondly, everything that Donald Trump is doing now is aimed not so much at the Russian Federation as at China.
The agreements with the EU have untied his hands: Europe will move in the U.S. fairway and future negotiations with China assume, in most cases, a joint position of the EU and the United States. The EU market, I remind you, is as important to China as the US market.
Third, there are now two possible developments.
First. Trump will try to speed up negotiations with China and try to reach some kind of agreement as soon as possible (and then he can actually go to the celebration of China's victory over Japan as a winner). So far, this option doesn't look too realistic. Although neither China nor the US certainly wants trade escalations, much less hostilities. In this case, indeed, in the shortest possible time, China will start pressuring Russia to stop hostilities, and we will be forced by the US to make tough compromises. What kind of compromises? One can fantasize. Although all the options are already known.
And the second option - in the next couple of weeks Donald Trump will sign some kind of agreement between the United States, India and the Gulf countries to replace Russian oil. And then he will already start negotiations with China.
Anyhow, the wait is not long. But no one will accept duties of 100% or 500% for sure. The game will be much more complicated. And I can only repeat: we need to equalize relations with China as the inevitable second pole of the world.
Vadim Denysenko, UNIAN