A New Round Of Migration Crisis
- 24.07.2025, 11:59
Is Putin behind Lukashenko's back?
Poland and Germany are actively discussing the next round of the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border. It is often compared to the events of 2021 and interpreted as an element of Russia's hybrid war against the EU. At the same time, the prospects for further escalation are considered, while the ruler of Belarus is assigned the role of Moscow's handmaiden.
July 21, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt paid a working visit to Poland and familiarized himself with the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border. At a meeting with his Polish counterpart Tomasz Siemoniak Dobrindt emphasized Warsaw's contribution to the defense of the EU's eastern borders and promised all-round support from the FRG. He also held Moscow and Minsk responsible for attempts to use illegal migration in the confrontation with the EU.
General Secretary of the CDU party in North Rhine-Westphalia Paul Zimiak, who accompanied Dobrindt on the trip, said directly that Alexander Lukashenko is acting on orders from Moscow.
The visit of the German delegation was rather symbolic in nature and was intended to demonstrate the constructive cooperation between Warsaw and Berlin in the issue of countering illegal migration - against the background of reports of conflicts and disputes between the two countries.
Earlier in May, Dobrindt ordered tighter controls at Germany's borders and federal police were instructed to refuse entry to illegal migrants - including asylum seekers arriving from other EU countries.
Fearing a mass return of migrants arriving along the so-called Belarus route through Poland, Warsaw in July reinstated border controls on the border with Lithuania and Germany.
In an attempt to smooth over the controversy, the FRG has promised Poland support. Berlin is even discussing sending technical means (e.g. drones), as well as the possibility of using federal police officers to protect the eastern borders of the EU.
In Minsk, Dobrindt's visit and his harsh rhetoric were ignored, apparently not wanting to aggravate the already bad relations with the key European player - Germany.
Instead, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry in its comments on the new round of the migration crisis focused on Poland and Lithuania. It is the authorities of these countries that are making sharp accusations against Minsk, claiming that it coordinates migration flows and provokes conflict on the border.
What explains the next escalation?
In mid-July, the topic of illegal migration was again in the center of attention of the European media. The reason was a significant increase in the number of illegal migrants trying to enter the EU.
This trend is explained by the rapid deterioration of the situation in Africa, the Middle East and Afghanistan, seasonal factors (in summer, as a rule, there are more migrants) and political circumstances. Among the latter is the tightening of migration policy, in particular the German government's Friedrich Merz policy of cracking down on illegal migration.
All this is pushing citizens of disadvantaged countries into desperate attempts to enter the EU. Human traffickers in North Africa, who control migration flows, have lowered their rates in the hope of earning "goodbye".
Many analysts believe that specific political forces are also behind the growing migration pressure.
In the case of the Greek island of Crete, which in recent weeks has become one of the targets for migrants arriving from Libya, the name of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, perhaps the most powerful man in that African country, has been mentioned. When talking about the EU's eastern borders, observers often point to Lukashenko and his Russian patron Vladimir Putin.
Both Haftar and Lukashenko have a history (in Lukashenko's case, rather negative) of using migration as a tool to pressure the EU. They share close ties with the Kremlin, and some of the migrants trying to enter Poland arrive in Belarus, according to the German tabloid Bild, directly from Libya or via Russia.
Although the version about the Russian trace looks plausible, there is no direct evidence that Moscow is the instigator of these operations. One way or another, the migration crises destabilize the situation in the EU, which plays into the hands of the Russian authorities.
Western statements and publications about Lukashenko are ambivalent: on the one hand, he is accused of subversion against the EU, and on the other hand, his role is reduced to fulfilling the Kremlin's instructions. Nevertheless, the issue of imposing new sanctions against Belarus has not been raised in this context yet.
Minsk would not want to get involved, but...
The image of Lukashenko as a tool of the Kremlin is not new. A similar interpretation dominated during the 2021 migration crisis. Then, against the backdrop of the crackdown on protests and repression in Belarus, European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, long refused to engage in direct dialog with Lukashenko, preferring to resolve issues through Putin.
Now, four years later, it is highly probable that the crisis was organized by the Belarusian authorities at least with the consent of the Kremlin, and possibly in coordination with it.
This was an attempt to pressure the EU to exchange the rejection of the migration card for the lifting of sanctions. The plan failed - sanctions pressure only intensified.
The 2021 migration crisis was one of the most serious failures in Lukashenko's long political career. Although he has not given up using illegal migration as a tool, he now acts more cautiously, seeking not to overreact.
The same can be said about the current situation. The Belarusian authorities are ready to annoy their neighbors, use the migration issue in their anti-Western propaganda and make economic profit by rendering various kinds of services to illegal migrants.
But deliberate aggravation is fraught with new sanctions and further isolation. It can also damage relations with Hungary - almost the only partner and potential ally of Belarus in the EU. The Viktor Orban government is known for its tough stance on illegal migration.
Western experts often underestimate the degree of Lukashenko's independence, preferring to perceive him solely as a puppet of the Kremlin. However, in the event of a new migration crisis, Belarus' role is likely to be more multifaceted.
In the context of deteriorating Russian-European relations and against the backdrop of the upcoming Zapad-2025 exercise, Lukashenko, as well as during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, may find himself in the role of an executor of the Kremlin's will - even if he personally would prefer to avoid such a development.
Alexandr Fridman, "Pozirk"