Economist: Everything Will Start Falling Apart In Belarus Sooner Than In Russia

• 21.07.2025, 18:38

The Belarusian ruble is waiting for devaluation.

Russian economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev believes that Belarus is on the verge of another devaluation of the national currency. It is pushed by the growing deficit of foreign trade balance, as well as the problems associated with the slowdown of the Russian economy. The expert stated this in a review on his YouTube channel.

According to Vyacheslav Shiryaev, it is very important to understand the situation in the Belarusian economy for two reasons.

The first reason is the fact that all the problems that are brewing in Belarus will have to be solved at the expense of the Russian budget, as it has always been done before. And there is already a huge hole in it.

The second reason, according to Shiryaev, is that "the Belarusian economy, as in a drop of water, reflects all the future problems of Russia".

"That is, what Belarus expects in the near future, namely, an increase in trade deficit, devaluation of the Belarusian ruble and so on - all this will happen in Russia with a lag of several months, because these are interdependent systems," the expert believes.

He cited the statistics of foreign trade of Belarus for January-April 2024 and the same period of 2025. It shows that the negative trade balance has almost doubled.

"And now, after the trade deficit began to grow very rapidly, the authorities will have to devalue the national currency, which means a sharp decline in living standards of the population of Belarus," said Shiryaev.

But it may not help the Belarusian economy if Russia also devalues its ruble synchronously, because Russia and Belarus are "interdependent, mutually communicating vessels."

And, according to the expert, if earlier Moscow was always ready to help Alexander Lukashenko with loans, which he never gave back, now, in the conditions of war with Ukraine, Vladimir Putin may demand real political concessions from Lukashenko for such support.

"The Kremlin will keep Belarus in its clawed clutches until the last. And this death grip will bring the Belarusian economy to a more deplorable state, I'm afraid, than in Russia, because there will be no one to help Lukashenko," said Shiryaev.

And then the Belarusian leader will have a choice: "Either to become a little more market-oriented, that is, to close inefficient enterprises, which generate losses, while facing negative social consequences. Or demand from Moscow and get a few billion dollars again to plug the holes. But will Moscow give this money? I doubt it."

"Therefore, perhaps at some point Lukashenko will have to make a difficult choice: to cut production, to reduce staff, to release people. And how will Belarus go about it? It has not had such experience during 30 years of Lukashenko's rule," notes the analyst.

In this situation, the expert believes that the Belarusian regime will have to "maneuver," to seek economic support in the West, to seek the lifting of sanctions. But for this, first of all, political prisoners should be released. It's even possible that Lukashenko will agree to step down as president and put in his place "some replacement acceptable to Europe," concludes Shiryaev.