Russian Oil Prices Fall To Lowest Since 2020
- 8.12.2025, 14:25
Report of the Russian government.
The average price of Urals crude oil - the main export grade of Russian oil producers - fell to $44.87 per barrel in November, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development reported.
Compared to October, the price of Urals collapsed by 18%, or nearly $9 per barrel, after oil producers were forced to sharply increase discounts due to the sanctions of the Donald Trump administration, under which Rosneft and Lukoil fell.
Compared to the beginning of the year ($67.66 per barrel in January), the price of Russian oil has collapsed by 33%, or $23 per barrel, and its current levels are the lowest since November 2020, according to data from the Ministry of Economic Development.
The price of oil in rubles, on which the filling of the budget depends, according to Reuters calculations, fell in November to 3256 rubles per barrel - the lowest since March 2023. This is 35% lower than the government has budgeted in the revised budget of the current year, and 40% lower than the budget for 2026.
With the accumulated inflation, the real ruble price of Urals is now at the levels of the covida times - it was lower only in April 2020, MMI analysts write.
The collapse of oil promises the budget a "big shortfall" of oil and gas revenues, warns economist Egor Susin. In January-November, raw materials tax revenues to the treasury fell by 21% year-on-year, or by Br2.3 trillion. In November, the decline reached 34% year-on-year, while the budget has received the minimum amount of oil taxes since May 2023.
The fall of oil and gas "should accelerate in January, given the dynamics of oil prices and discounts," Susin points out. Early next year, the failure of export earnings will also be felt by the currency market, warns VTB Investments strategist Alexei Mikheev.
This will lead to a fall in the ruble exchange rate to 85-90 per dollar, he believes: "The decline in Russian oil prices is negative for the ruble exchange rate. Currency sales under the budget rule will not fully compensate for this effect."
The Finance Ministry initially expected to collect 10.94 trillion rubles of oil and gas revenues this year, but later reduced the plan by 21%, to 8.65 rubles. The plan for the budget deficit was increased almost fivefold - from Br1.2 trillion to Br5.7 trillion. According to Janis Kluge, a researcher at the German Institute for International Security Problems, the government will probably not be able to meet this figure either: by the end of November, the Finance Ministry had spent 88% of the budgeted amount, and given the traditional December spending spree, the budget deficit may be a third higher than planned - 3.5% of GDP instead of 2.6%.