Why Lukashenko Took The Long Arc
- 6.12.2025, 13:45
And in Oman, he disappeared from sight altogether.
Since the end of last week, Alexander Lukashenko has been on a big tour of the countries, as it is commonly said, of the global south. Of all the visits along the "far arc," this one is one of the strangest. Lukashenko visited Myanmar, which is famous for opium poppy production. In Algeria, he proposed to set up a fertilizer plant for three people. And in Oman he disappeared from sight altogether.
Why Lukashenko took the "far arc" in the new issue of the program "Optimum" on the YouTube channel "Belarusians and the market".
Since a coup took place in Myanmar in 2021 and a military junta came to power, this country is the poorest country in the region. But during his visit to this country Lukashenko could finally feel himself a great world leader. Because he was received with such pomp that Lukashenko was even a little embarrassed by all this attention.
"Frankly speaking, we don't deserve such attention yet," he said.
Indeed, if you look at the figures of mutual trade, the attention is absolutely undeserved. In the spring, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Shuleiko boasted that the two countries had set a record for mutual trade. Sounds solid if you don't know what he was comparing it to. Before that, the record trade turnover was in 2019, when it amounted to less than $30 million. Following Lukashenko's visit and a joint business forum with this friendly country, contracts worth 9 million dollars were signed.
But Lukashenko was embarrassed, of course, in vain. He was received with pomp not only to make the guest pleasant, but also for purely egoistic reasons. Because there will be elections in the country now, and high-level foreign guests do not spoil Myanmar with their visits. And here, however you look at it, there is a European leader. So it is possible to show to the people the multi-vector nature of its foreign policy.
"We have met with you six times this year. This shows that there is no isolation for our countries and there can't be any," said Lukashenko.
Of course, it doesn't mean that there is no international isolation. It speaks rather about the fact that there is no one else to meet with. But, on the other hand, when people meet so often, it means that they have a great mutual interest. Even if it's not talked about on TV. After all, Myanmar has its own little secret. It is the second largest producer of opium poppies after Afghanistan.
"We in Belarus have everything that the Myanmar people need. You have everything we need," Lukashenko said.
And this country also needs money. At the meeting with Lukashenko, interim president Min Aung Hlaing boasted of his country's geographical location and called on Belarusian companies to invest and open new businesses in Myanmar.
"I urge Belarusian businesses from all sectors to come and invest in Myanmar, where there are excellent opportunities for investment," he said.
But besides opportunities, there are nuances. It is not for nothing that Myanmar, with such a favorable geographical location and natural wealth, is experiencing a severe shortage of foreign investment. Because since the coup, i.e. since 2021, there has been a civil war there. The current government controls well if half of the country's territory. Therefore, what happened to the recently deposed president of Guinea-Bissau may happen to Myanmar partners. And then, of course, no one can guarantee the safety of Belarusian investments.
And immediately after Myanmar, Lukashenko flew to another promising partner in Oman. And it was the strangest of all visits. Lukashenko flew to Oman on November 28, while the local media did not report anything about the visit of the Belarusian guest, and Lukashenko did not appear in public at all until December 1. That is, he flew to a foreign country and spent two days in this country doing some personal business. So we can see at once that Oman is not a foreign country to us.
But Lukashenko came to the meeting with the Sultan of Oman with two sons. The eldest Viktor and the youngest Nikolai. No one else from the Belarusian side, except for an interpreter, was at the meeting. Even Belarusian television recognized that the visit was of a family nature.
And if you came to discuss purely family business, why should you tell outsiders about it? Belarusians do not need to know about this business. Because if we talk about trade relations between Belarus and Oman, there is nothing to talk about. Last year, the volume of trade turnover amounted to $5 million.
There is, however, another project to build a pulp mill in Belarus by Oman for almost $1.5 billion. But since it is also a family business of developing the natural resources of the Berezinskiy reserve with the Omani sheikhs, it is better for the Belarusians not to know unnecessary details.
And on December 2, after Oman, Lukashenko went to Algeria. And it was in Algeria that he found a very promising topic for cooperation.
"A very interesting topic has appeared. The president (of Oman) said that in the near future he will have so much phosphate that there will be nowhere to put it. Algeria, for example, is a country that is a leader in natural gas production and exports. We can build an enterprise for three people in Oman, as I told the president," Lukashenko said.
And everything seems to be really logical. Algeria has gas, Oman has phosphates, so the two of us can make fertilizers out of them to sell them to starving African countries and get rich. There's one thing that's not clear. Why is Lukashenko in this scheme? Because of all the above-mentioned natural riches Lukashenko has only the Grodno Azot plant.
After Algeria, encouraged by new prospects, Lukashenko went back to Oman on December 3, where he disappeared again. At least, as of the morning of December 5, he had not appeared in public. So Alexander Lukashenko and Oman are connected by some mysterious and deeply personal relations.
And again, note that if with Myanmar they signed contracts for at least 9 million dollars, with Oman nothing at all. But there are great results from the trip to Algeria. Lukashenko promised to increase the volume of trade with Algeria up to 500 million dollars. True, he will have to try very hard. Because last year the volume of trade between Belarus and Algeria amounted to $50 million.
That is, the three exceptionally friendly countries, through which Lukashenko made his diplomatic tour, traded with Belarus in 2024 for less than $100 million. Only Belarusian exports to unfriendly Lithuania amounted to 418 million dollars last year. In the same unfriendly Poland - 436.
But then the Belarusian authorities decided to start forcing the neighbors to a constructive dialogue. Constructive dialog did not work out, but sanctions did, because of which now we have to walk along the far arc in search of happiness.