Kazakhstan May Stop Transit Of Russian Oil To China
- 3.12.2025, 20:31
Because of the sanctions against Rosneft.
Russian oil supplies to China via a pipeline that comes through Kazakhstan have come under question because of U.S. sanctions against Rosneft, RTVI reported, citing sources in Kazakhstan's oil and gas sector.
The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline pumps 10 million tons of oil to China annually from fields in Western Siberia. "Kaztransoil" - the operator of the national pipeline system - receives $15 for each ton of transit under the contract concluded in 2023.
Future fate of these supplies will depend on the decision of the U.S. Treasury Department, which in October imposed blocking sanctions against Rosneft and banned any transactions with it. The Kazakhstani Energy Ministry has sent a request to Washington to get clarifications on how to operate under the new conditions.
If the U.S. Finance Ministry issues a general license and removes the pipeline from the sanctions, the supplies will continue in the same volume, RTVI sources say. If the license cannot be obtained, Kazakhstan will be faced with a choice of either stopping transit or risking that Kaztransoil will be subject to secondary sanctions.
In talks with representatives of the U.S. and the EU, Kazakhstan's leadership "emphasizes that the country must comply with its previous international obligations, and Western partners are sympathetic to this position," the source tells RTVI. When obtaining the license, payments between Rosneft and Kazakhstan - $150 million - will have to be transferred into national currencies.
China buys the main volume of Russian oil by sea - from 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day. After the U.S. sanctions, state-owned Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as private refineries began to refuse these supplies. According to Kpler estimates, in November, Russian oil imports to China could have dropped by 36%, to 926 thousand barrels per day.
At risk because of sanctions - 300-400 thousand barrels of daily supplies to China, estimates analyst Kpler Johanes Rauball. China's state-owned refineries tend to be conservative in their approach to sanctions risk, while private refineries may return to Russian barrels due to large discounts, he believes.
China is likely to resume purchases from Russia in the same volumes, but through intermediaries - this scheme has already been tested, Rauball points out: "If barrels are supplied through third-party trading organizations that can reliably prove that they are not Rosneft/Lukoil, refineries can continue to receive discounts on supplies, limiting the visibility of sanctioned contacts."