SBU Major General: Time To Shoot Down Weather Probes Over The Territory Of Belarus
- 3.12.2025, 14:33
A decisive response would force Lukashenko to stop the attacks.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that balloon incursions into airspace could be part of Russian-Belarusian provocations as part of the so-called "zero phase" of preparations for a possible conflict with NATO.
What is really behind the series of balloon attacks on Lithuania? About it Charter97.org talked to retired SBU Major-General Viktor Yagun:
- I think that this is a special system aimed at destabilizing the situation on the border. An attempt to keep the border services of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia in constant tension.
Utilizing these methods - where one, where two meteosondes - Russian special services record intelligence moments related to how the system reacts, how quickly it unfolds, what actions it takes. It turns out that they have the ability to control or change some tactics so that in the future, if there is a massive drone strike, they can understand what they are facing, what equipment is being used, what commands are being given. Special services intercept radio signals: who is working on the border, how they are working.
It is clear that these weather probes are also a bonus, such as the closure of airports. Especially this affects Vilnius airport, which is in close proximity to the border. There are some pretty big financial losses through that. I don't think this is the main thing, either - it is a bonus.
- What role, in your opinion, does Lukashenko's regime play in these operations?
- Lukashenko is actually a proxy-executor. Hybrid attacks are carried out through him. No matter what they say, they are flying out of Belarus. I think that if we start shooting them down over the territory of Belarus, not allowing them to reach the border, some hotheads will cool down. But in order to make such a decision, one should have an iron will and determination. So far, I don't see anyone demonstrating such intentions.
- How else should the EU and NATO countries react to such violations of airspace?
- It is necessary to simply close the border. It is critically important for Belarus.
If you close the border, if you don't allow trains to pass, if you don't allow anything at all for at least a week, I think you will immediately get some "response" from China, which will ask Belarusians: "So you said that you are a transit country".
I think that Belarus depends on it very critically - exactly on how and where to deliver its goods. And not everything can be allowed to pass through Russia. I think that if such a tough decision were made, the number of these weather probes would simply decrease many times over.