Forbes: Ukraine's Fight Against Russia's "shadow Fleet" Is Taking On A Global Scale
- 21.12.2025, 12:51
Moscow has not responded either directly or asymmetrically.
The Ukrainian military has struck a Russian oil tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean Sea, indicating a significant expansion of Kiev's long-term maritime campaign against Moscow's infrastructure to circumvent sanctions. This is according to Forbes.
The consequences of such strikes for the Russian Federation
According to Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, intensive attacks on "shadow fleet" tankers could cut off key routes for Russian oil exports, with direct consequences for export volumes and government revenues.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that Russia's shadow fleet transports about 3.7 million barrels of oil per day, which is about 65% of maritime oil exports and generates $87-100 billion a year.
Forbes emphasized that Ukraine is seeking to cut off oil revenues that continue to fund Russia's war by increasing pressure on military installations.
"This strategy took time to implement, as Ukraine had to demonstrate that a response to Russian escalation would not trigger Western reprisals, effectively exposing Moscow's bluff. During 2025, Kiev focused on strikes on Russian oil refineries and then shifted its attention to export infrastructure, particularly oil terminals in ports such as Novorossiysk," the material recalled.
Ukraine's pressure on enemy infrastructure
This progress, the publication notes, shows a shift from symbolic obstacles to sustained pressure on Russia's ability to process and transport energy exports.
"Ukrainian naval drones have effectively imposed a partial blockade of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Moscow's most obvious countermeasure would be to escort its sanctions-violating shadow fleet with warships in the Black Sea, but that would expose those escort ships to the same drone threats, turning defense into an additional burden," Forbes added.
At the same time, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security Samuel Bendett noted that Russia is focused on keeping Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels as far away from its coast as possible.
"The key is to target them with longer-range drones," Bendett said.
The expert added, however, that Ukrainian countermeasures are not standing still either. In particular, unmanned vessels are already equipped with first-person view drones, so they can be used as interceptors of Russian drones.
"As the fight for the Black Sea continues, Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to expand the battlefield, not just fight over it. By combining surface, below-surface, and long-range drone operations, Kiev is increasing the threat faced by both Russian military and commercial vessels, forcing the Kremlin to defend territory far beyond traditional maritime bottlenecks," Forbes emphasized.
Bad News for Russia
In turn, Russian military commentators acknowledged that Russia has not responded either directly or asymmetrically, noting the challenges Russia faces in protecting commercial shipping outside the Black Sea.
At the same time, William Spaniel, an associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, noted that in the future Ukraine could adapt elements of the Houthi campaign against shipping in the Red Sea, using maritime drones such as Sea Baby to pressure maritime commerce that is tied to the Russian Federation.
"With fewer geographic constraints, Ukraine could apply the same approach in other theaters of war, including the Baltic and the Arctic. Taken together, these developments suggest that Moscow is forced to protect its maritime trade in an increasing number of theaters of war," the publication concluded.