Pavel Lakiychuk: Russian Z-publiks Are Already In A Panic

• 2.12.2025, 19:30

Ukrainian captain told of drone attacks on Putin's shadow fleet.

A series of mysterious attacks on Russian tankers of the "shadow fleet" that Moscow uses to circumvent oil sanctions continues in the Black Sea.

What exactly happened to the tankers Kairos, Virat? How exactly was the operation to defeat the ships of Putin's "shadow fleet" in the Black Sea conducted?"

These are the questions the website Charter97.org asked Captain I rank of the Ukrainian Navy, head of military programs of the Center for Globalistics "Strategy XXI" Pavlo Lakiychuk:

- I will also say that today was hit another Russian tanker - MIDVOLGA-2. The Turks are also very puzzled by the accident of the tanker M/T Mersin, also Panama-flagged, but the vessel's origin can be easily assumed. This tanker, which left Taman, was wrecked off the coast of Senegal. Senegal is West Africa. And there, too, the Ukrainian drones are suspected. Ukrainian drones are said to have appeared off the coast of Senegal. Whether this is true or not, I can neither confirm nor deny. One should ask our military, they monitor the situation and own it. But the fact remains that the "shadow fleet" of Russia, after the Russian oil terminals in the Black Sea, became the object of attacks.

I will remind you that since 2022 the Russian Federation has been trying to block Ukrainian ports by the Black Sea Fleet. In fact, a blockade was arranged, in which more than 60 large foreign merchant ships were stuck. Some of them were shelled, there were casualties among crews and crews, ships were damaged.

And now we see the continuation of the same line: just two weeks ago - a strike on a Turkish dry cargo ship in the port of Izmail by Russian drones. More than a hundred foreign vessels traveling to or docked in Ukrainian ports have been subjected to drone and missile attacks by the Russian Black Sea Fleet and occupation forces in recent years.

The fact that the Ukrainians have begun to apply the very kinetic sanctions on the "shadow fleet" is a long-expected and natural response. In September 2022, the commander of the Ukrainian Navy Admiral Alexei Neizpapa officially notified through the International Maritime Organization that Russian ports on the Caucasus coast, in occupied Crimea and the Sea of Azov are legitimate targets for the AFU and can be subjected to naval drone strikes, foreign vessels are not recommended to enter these ports. This was not heeded.

In 2023, the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine explicitly stated that ships of the "shadow fleet" could be attacked in the Black Sea, they were legitimate military targets.

In 2025, we finally heard that these ships, which ignore international law, have indeed begun to be subjected to maritime drone attacks.

What can be said? It's completely logical. This has happened in all wars. Moreover, the first two tankers were attacked in international waters north of the Bosporus. And this is a question for the Turkish authorities: look for yourself, these ships were sailing without registration, without a flag, without insurance. They have made seven or eight voyages to Novorossiysk in the last year and a half alone, carrying oil to Asia and Latin America. It is clear that the crews of such vessels are "in on it". It is clear that the one who ships oil in the port of departure and the one who receives the ship in the port of destination are also in the share. Flagless, wrecked, worn-out vessels are taken at their own risk. This is such an international criminal scheme.

But how do such ships pass through the Black Sea straits, the Red Sea or the Panama Canal? Countries that used to be very strict about the safety of the straits are suddenly turning a blind eye. So, it is not just about money, but very big money.

The fact that the Ukrainians have joined the international sanctions and strengthened them with a "kinetic" component, that is, attacks on dangerous and criminal vessels, I assess positively.

By the way, we must give credit to the operators of marine drones, those who organized these operations. Ukrainians hit tankers in ballast, unloaded, minimizing environmental damage in case of damage or sinking of the vessel. This was the case with the two recent tankers and the Russian tanker in the Kerch Strait a year ago. This is an additional bonus. It is very revealing to take such aspects into account when conducting defensive military operations.

- What consequences do these strikes already have for the Russian "shadow fleet" and schemes to circumvent oil sanctions? But the obvious consequences are already manifesting themselves. There are two key components.

The first is the crews. It must be understood that the "shadow fleet" are ships without insurance and crews without rights, recruited outside the Seafarers' International Union. It's not even a lower caste - it's people who couldn't get a job anywhere else. And the fact that their ships could simply be sunk is a very serious disincentive.

The second is the companies that receive the "shadow fleet" oil. It is for them that the consequences will be the most painful. Because the real ship owners in such schemes are usually fake structures.

- What can Russia do to protect its sanctioned tankers in the Black Sea?

- Theoretically, Russia can organize convoying of tankers by warships. But here the question arises: is it worth risking either tankers or its own warships? Near the Bosphorus two years ago, at least three Russian reconnaissance ships and two patrol ships were attacked by naval drones. They were severely damaged, after that they don't go there anymore. They were the ships Ivan Khurs, Daring and the project ship Vasily Bykov.

In 2023, the Russians were going to organize a blockade of Ukrainian ports after the withdrawal from the so-called "grain agreement," saying that Ukrainian ships would not go there anymore. "We will be on the far side here." In response, their ships were hit - and stopped going to these frontiers. Will they now want to risk ships, of which Russia doesn't have many left to escort their "shalands"? I don't know.

What's more, if the geography of attacks really expands, Russian tankers will have to be escorted all over the world. And the Russian fleet, even if we combine the Baltic, Northern and Pacific fleets, will simply not be enough for this.

- What vulnerable points of Russian oil logistics could become the next targets?

- Russian Z-publics are already writing in panic: "So the AFU can send drones to the Baltic Sea!" I don't know if the AFU is ready to organize a blockade of Russian ports in the Gulf of Finland. Or whether the Baltic and Northern European countries will take real action to blockade the "shadow fleet".

The terminals in Ust-Luga drones have already flown. Why don't drones also fly over tankers in the Baltic Sea? Anything is possible. But you should not ask me, but, say, Magyar.