Bloomberg: Belarus Will Not Be Able To Increase Potash Supplies To The US Without Losses In Other Markets
- 16.12.2025, 10:26
European sanctions will be expanded.
Despite the fact that experts express the opinion that Belarus may be able to supply potash to the US market after the US sanctions are lifted, in fact, the country may not have such an opportunity. At least without losses in other markets. That's according to Bloomberg.
A small share of Belarusian supplies to the U.S. market would be easily replaced after Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, said Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group. True, fertilizer imports to the States from Canada, a major supplier, could be at risk if Donald Trump follows through on his promise to impose tariffs on them.
And while Belarus may try to return to the U.S. market, much depends on supply logistics. European Union sanctions remain in place, so Belarus will have to rely on Russian ports and railroads to China in the future. Lifting U.S. sanctions will "simplify the behind-the-scenes part of trade," such as insurance and credit, but logistical difficulties remain, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell.
In addition, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, potash exports from Belarus last year amounted to 88% of the pre-sanctions level. And any increase in shipments to the U.S. could force Belarus to cut sales to other markets, said Alan Pickett, head of fertilizer market analysis at S&P Global Energy.
"Since they've pretty much regained global market share, that means that if they ship more to the U.S., they'll probably ship less to other regions. The balance does not change significantly, which means the impact on world prices remains small," he said.
After talks with the special envoy of the United States President John Cole, Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree on "pardoning" 123 political prisoners. A total of 156 citizens of different countries were released. In response, the U.S. said it was lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash. However, as it turned out, the sanctions were not completely lifted.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania stated that there were no discussions in the European Union about lifting sanctions against Belarus, despite the U.S. decision to lift restrictions against Belarusian potash fertilizers. Moreover, the European sanctions against Belarus will even be extended.