"Lukashenko Was Very Quick To Backtrack."

• 8.11.2025, 15:55

Why the EU should keep up the pressure on Minsk.

This is the question Charter97.org asked to the expert of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs Grigory Nizhnikov:

- I believe that the EU policy based on pressure on Lukashenko is correct. Another thing is that this pressure is not enough. In the situation with the borders, we can see very well how, for example, Lukashenko quickly backtracked as soon as Poland closed the cargo flow for several weeks. And we see how Lukashenko reacts when they close the borders for individuals. He simply doesn't care.

There is a potential for increasing pressure from the EU. I believe that Brussels should go for it, while offering more involvement to the Belarusian society. There is a huge scope for work here, it is necessary to pull the Belarusian society out from under the propaganda-repressive umbrella used by both Moscow and Lukashenko.

What concerns the question of why the EU should not repeat the American policy, there is a simple explanation - unlike the Trump administration, Europe has already stepped on this rake when they tried to conduct a dialogue with Lukashenko, tried to change his behavior through positive incentives. This only led to even worse both domestic and foreign policy behavior of Lukashenko. Therefore, simply based on its reputation, the West will not make concessions until it sees significant changes in Minsk.

Knowing that Minsk will not change, that it will not stop repression, it will not stop being totalitarian inside the country, and it will not stop being a source of risks for regional security by continuing the war against Ukraine, the EU cannot, will not, and cannot make concessions to Lukashenko or dialog with him.