"The Belarusians Are Just Waiting For The Right Moment."

• 7.11.2025, 22:53

Change in a country can happen suddenly.

The coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Evgeny Afnagel came to Lithuania when Belarusian dictator Lukashenko decided to release more than 50 political prisoners, including Lithuanians, in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions against Belavia airline, writes the largest Lithuanian portal Delfi.lt (translated by Charter97.org). The man spent five years in a regime prison, and now thanks Lithuania for the opportunity to live here, but warns that the Russians and the Belarusian regime do not slumber.

Eugenius was brought up from childhood in the spirit of opposing the regime. He said that he first went to a rally back in Soviet times - then his father took him to a protest action. In 2020, he was arrested along with other like-minded people and has since spent five years in prison.

- There was an interview with you recently, where you also spoke about the closure of the Lithuanian-Belarusian border. It is true that the official opposition in your country is somewhat more cautious about this issue. Could you explain its position?

- First of all, I would like to thank Lithuania for its principled position on Belarus over the past five years. Even when I was in prison, I saw the comments in the official press, we could not read anything else, I saw how much bile was poured out on your country. It was clear that our neighbors had the clearest and most consistent position against the Belarusian regime. Now, when I have been released and came to Lithuania, I see that the Lithuanian government continues the same policy.

It is very good that Lithuanian politicians realize that the Belarusian regime poses a threat not only to Belarusians, but also to the whole region of Eastern Europe, to Lithuania. Political interests and national security are more important to you than trade, more important than petty, momentary interests.

The recent provocations with balloons were obviously not an accident. They were coordinated, they were a test of the Lithuanian side's reaction, and it is very good that the reaction was quick, effective and logical. More can be done. Transit from Belarus through Lithuania to Kaliningrad continues as before. I think closing these possibilities would have been a more sensitive blow, a more sensitive signal to the Belarusian regime.

- Poland had a somewhat different opinion recently, fortunately it has changed it.

- Your Prime Minister held talks with Donald Tusk, and Poland postponed the decision to open the two border crossings. Earlier, about 10 years ago, the neighboring countries with Belarus did not have an agreed position, and they, for example, fought for transit to Klaipeda or Ventspils, but now we see that the position is agreed, which was not the case before.

The fact that Poland postponed the opening of two border crossings is a good signal. How will it be useful? Any government is based on money, and the Belarusian regime is no exception. The more financial flows can be blocked, the faster it will collapse. This is in our interests, in the interests of the citizens of Belarus.

- Why does your opposition, for example, talk about the need to open a transit zone for ordinary people?

- For ordinary Belarusians, Vilnius and the nearest Polish cities are like a breath of freedom. Lukashenko is interested in Belarusians not traveling abroad. He himself wants to travel, he wants his trade to continue, he wants to earn money, while Belarusians, in his opinion, should stay at home and work.

- For the citizens of our country a trip to Vilnius or Warsaw is a good opportunity to compare life at home with life in Europe, and this comparison is not in favor of modern Belarus.

- For five years after the last election we have been observing the rampant regime of Lukashenko, which manifested itself in the attack on Ukraine from your territory. And at that time it seemed that everything could change. What was done wrong?

- In 2020, Belarus had a unique uprising, a huge number of people took to the streets. Despite this, the goal was not achieved. The presidential candidate's headquarters is to blame for this, among other things.

First, Belarusians were urged to take to the streets only on Sundays, while people wanted more. They wanted to protest every day, and we saw this activity on the ground. We saw how people were organizing themselves, saw the preparation for strikes. To many people, this plan seemed strange and incomprehensible. We protest once a week, but for some reason we work the rest of the days and finance the regime and the security forces that disperse us on Sundays.

World protests are, among other things, a strike. We saw the figures of losses suffered by state enterprises that tried to strike in the first days after the elections, and we realized that if there was a long strike, the regime would not be able to sustain it. There simply wouldn't have been enough money.

In addition, there was a lack of decisive actions. In Belarus, after every presidential election, people took to the streets. I remember the history of 2001, there were protests then, of course, not on such a scale as in 2020. At that time, the Zubr movement played an important role. Five to ten thousand people gathered on the central square of Minsk, but we managed to occupy a building in the center of the city, a white-red-white flag was raised above it. It was really cool.

Unfortunately, in 2020, the members of the headquarters and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya herself were very afraid of the protests. She went to Vilnius, urging Belarusians not to take to the streets. Then, all the time, while the confrontation was going on, the protest activity was simply extinguished. People wanted to protest, they were ready for decisive actions, they were ready to do something, but we were told that all we had to do was to walk around waving flowers and balloons.

We had to act decisively, occupy buildings, television - there were such opportunities. These would have been non-violent actions. The experience of Ukraine and Armenia showed that any entry into the streets should end with at least some victory, some results. Their absence, in my opinion, was the main mistake then.

- Belarusians will not take to the streets anymore?

- I think the revolutionary situation in Belarus remains. Yes, serious repressions continue now. Every day there are new arrests, new political prisoners, and this is one of the indicators that Lukashenko is afraid. He realizes that something may suddenly erupt somewhere. For this to happen, perhaps some minor factor is enough, for example, a defeat of Russia somewhere on the front, a rise in prices, some conflict within the government.

The people who took to the streets in 2020 have not disappeared anywhere. Some of them, as we know, went abroad, but most of them remain in Belarus, their relatives, those who voted against Lukashenko, haven't disappeared either. I'm not in Belarus, it's hard for me to assess the situation, but I judge by the people I communicate with, even by the guards in prison. I see that the attitude towards the regime has not changed. Belarusians are just waiting for the right moment.

- You spent five years in prison, your position has not changed, the regime has not broken you.

- In difficult moments, I thought about what is happening in Ukraine now. We were in prison, there people died at the front. And yet we have the same goal. Ukrainians, Lithuanians, Poles, all Europeans understand that the aggression from the east must be stopped.

- It is not the first time you say that your prison experience is not comparable to what Ukrainians are going through.

- You can compare what people do for their freedom. The biggest sacrifice for freedom is one's own life. We see how Ukrainians, Belarusians, other people fighting for Ukraine sacrifice their lives.

- You say that war is inevitable both in the EU countries and in Lithuania, if it continues. Why do you think so?

- I am a historian by education and I see the history of Russia as a state capable of living through constant expansion. Like the Mongols in their time. As soon as the expansion ends, Russia starts a crisis, begins to disintegrate, some of its parts separate, there are revolutions, coups, dramatic changes. Therefore, Russia has been and remains a threat to Europe. Russian geopolitical doctrine says that at least the territory of the former Soviet Union is a zone of Russian interests. Those who have read about it, who are familiar with history, were not surprised that Russia attacked Georgia or Ukraine. This is the essence of Russia as an Asian empire, it is unlikely to change. The countries bordering it must respond adequately to provocations, which, thank God, is now happening. Either Russia will expand at the expense of Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, and other ways, or it will be stopped, which will inevitably lead to big changes in Europe. Russia's defeat will most likely lead to the separation of some national republics from it.

- You live in Lithuania now, do you feel that Lithuanians understand this?

- I see that the military and politicians in Lithuania understand this, but I also see complaints from the citizens of the country about the closure of the borders. I hope that these short-term interests will be put on the back burner. The question is the following: today balloons fly from Belarus, tomorrow drones will fly, and the day after tomorrow anything can happen. In Ukraine, too, everything started with provocations.

- Will Belarus become an independent country where people will be happy to go?

- I am sure that it will happen in our lifetime. I remember the collapse of the Soviet Union. The parallels are obvious: then there was Afghanistan, now there is Ukraine. In Afghanistan, the occupying army actually controlled 90 percent of the territory, but the war continued, exhausting the Soviet Union's forces, there were sanctions, a strong position of the West.

If someone had said in 1988 or 1989 that the USSR would collapse in a year, everyone would have twiddled their thumbs. But then there was Tbilisi and Riga, January 1991 in Lithuania, a referendum in Ukraine. The Soviet Union was gone. It would seem that the largest, most militarily powerful state in the world disappeared in the blink of an eye. The same will happen now. Russia is fighting a war that is wearing her down. The Russians may be advancing a few meters along the front, but they are suffering huge losses.