A Purse Full Of Cons

• Irina Khalip
• 7.11.2025, 11:17

"Big Deal" translated into collective.

In February, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Smith met with Lukashenka for the first time, and the New York Times, citing sources in the White House, wrote that a "big deal" was being prepared between the United States and Belarus. Then Lukashenko repeated this phrase several times at all sorts of meetings: a big deal. He liked the sound of it and promised that the deal was about to happen.

And recently Lukashenko announced that he had sent the United States "to...". And two days ago, the U.S. completely lifted sanctions on Belavia and Lukashenko's private jet. Was that the big deal? "You, Sasha, send us away in public, preferably with a swear word, and we'll give you an airplane for it." At least it looks that way.

But let's remember the story of Trump and Lukashenko's big friendship, as well as the "big deal" and the big scam. So, in February, Christopher Smith comes to Minsk. He secretly meets with Lukashenko and Tertel, and three prisoners are immediately taken to Lithuania - US and Ukrainian citizen Nikolai Shugaev, Radio Liberty correspondent Andrei Kuznchik, and mother of many children Elena Movshuk. Christopher Smith is later interviewed by CNN and says it was just a goodwill gesture and no reciprocal steps were demanded by Lukashenko. But leaks to the New York Times suggested that negotiations for a grand bargain were well underway, with talks of releasing political prisoners in exchange for a tangible easing of sanctions.

It seemed like a bargain indeed. Even those who believe that sanctions should be strengthened, not weakened, said: well, if all political prisoners are released, then the hell with them, with sanctions. In April, the Deputy Special Representative of the President of the United States on Ukraine John Cole arrives in Minsk - and a U.S. citizen Yuri Zenkovich is released from the colony. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio writes on social media afterward that Trump has freed 47 wrongfully convicted Americans around the world in a short period of time.

In June, 14 more prisoners are taken from Belarus to Lithuania - mostly foreign nationals, but six Belarusian political prisoners too. For the first time, the euphoria is replaced by a cautious "is it necessary to go abroad with a bag on your head?". But otherwise everything really looks like a deal. Okay, then let's keep quiet further, so as not to spook.

August 15, US President Donald Trump calls Lukashenko, after which he calls him a deeply respected president and says that he called to thank him for the release of the previous batch of prisoners and at the same time to negotiate the release of another 1,400 people. And Lukashenko confirms his readiness a week later, though in his own style: "You want 1,500-2,000? Take them to your place, take them to you". And in September, several dozen more political prisoners are sent to Lithuania. (True, Nikolai Statkevich breaks Lukashenko's game with one gesture: by his refusal to go to Lithuania he demonstrates to the whole world that what is happening is not liberation.)

Nevertheless, the "big deal" seems to be at the final stage. And now even Poland declares about the imminent opening of two checkpoints, which means that Andrzej Poczobut will be free any minute now. And suddenly - somersault, somersault-mortale, "America has gone to...". And "friend Donald" is no longer a friend, but a patsy. And it was as if no deal had been planned, and no negotiations had taken place.

Trump was hardly prepared for some small-minded creature to suddenly yap. He is accustomed to the fact that any creature of this biological species is enough to praise, publicly call deeply respected - and it will be happy to "swim", to release politzeks, to go on for the rest of his life to say "here we are with my friend Donald one evening...". I believe that the lifting of sanctions on Belavia happened automatically - simply because on this date another expulsion of political prisoners from Belarus was scheduled.

Only Trump and his entourage have not realized that political prisoners are Lukashenko's only real capital. He has no other. All those gold bars and palaces mean nothing. They can't buy a seat at the table at the meeting of the G7 leaders. It doesn't buy a reputation or a vote. But political prisoners are the perfect currency. The most convertible currency in the world. It would be easier for Lukashenko to hang himself than to do that.

But there are mechanisms for taking away this "capital". And Donald Trump may be the only one who can do it. So don't be a phreaker, Mr. President. Don't believe it.

Irina Khalip, especially for Charter97.org.