Yauhen Afnagel: Belarusians Are Unequivocally On The Side Of Ukraine

• 21.11.2025, 12:47

The Belarusian people hate both Lukashenko and Putin equally.

Coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Yauhen Afnagel told in an interview to the Ukrainian edition "Argument" about the main achievement of 2020 and what will be a turning point for the liberation of Belarus.

- How do you assess the current state of the Belarusian opposition? Has it retained its strength after years of repression and emigration of its leaders?

- It is not the first time that the Belarusian opposition has faced the need to emigrate. After the presidential elections in 2010, a large number of opponents of the regime left the country, including Lukashenko's main rival, the leader of the civil campaign "European Belarus," Andrei Sannikov. This did not prevent the 2017 and 2020 protests from being prepared. On the contrary, the presence of some people and structures abroad, where the Belarusian security services could not reach them, made it possible to solve a lot of organizational issues.

A great contribution to the 2020 protests was made by independent media, such as Charter'97, Belsat and Telegram channels, whose editorial offices were outside Belarus. Now, in the era of the Internet, the distance no longer matters for communication and coordination of protests.

The strength of any political organization is in the level of support for its ideas in society. The absolute majority of Belarusians oppose Lukashenko, want a change of power and normal development for their country. Those who continue to wage a real struggle for the liberation of Belarus from occupation and dictatorship will be supported. This is the main reason why we are being forced out of the country - the dictator and his entourage know about the real moods and are afraid of a new uprising.

It's also important to note that now political prisoners - people who five years ago organized and coordinated protests, street actions, strikes - are being released. I am sure that most of them will continue to fight.

- Why, in your opinion, did the 2020 protest fail to bring about change? What was missing in the "European Belarus" movement and other initiatives?

- In 2020, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in Belarus, the absolute majority of whom participated in protests for the first time. The same can be said about a part of the protest leaders. They were completely unaware of the struggle against dictatorship in Belarus in the previous 25 years, of the successful experience of the change of power in Serbia, Ukraine, Georgia and other countries.

Revolutions always take place in capitals, moreover, in the centers of capitals, where public life, state institutions, key buildings and highways are concentrated. Instead of gradually taking control of the center of Minsk, people were led away from it. Instead of taking to the streets and not leaving them, as the protesters themselves wanted, they were told to go out once a week, on Sunday, wave balloons and flags, and that would be enough for the dictatorship to fall. Naturally, such protests did not pose a serious threat to the authorities.

Another major factor in nonviolent resistance is the refusal to cooperate with the regime. In virtually all countries where nonviolent revolutions have taken place, their key element has been a nationwide strike. Unfortunately, the headquarters of Svetlana Tikhanovska, a presidential candidate, refused to call for a strike at a time when it was needed most, when Sergei Tikhanovski, Nikolai Statkevich, Viktor Babariko, and immediately after election day were arrested. Not only that, but on August 9, Sviatlana Tikhanovskaia called on people not to take to the streets.

Later, in the second half of August and in September, representatives of the headquarters blocked any initiative that suggested decisive action, whether it was a blockade of the prison where political prisoners were held, or occupation of buildings in the city center, universities, television.

I am sure that if all these factors had been taken into account, the regime would not have lasted even a few weeks. Hundreds of thousands of protesters could have taken control of Minsk in a short period of time, and Lukashenko would be living next door to Yanukovych.

- What techniques does Lukashenko use to hold on to power and simultaneously play on two fronts - in front of Moscow and the West? He is Putin's puppet. There is only one trick left - to follow all the instructions received from Moscow.

The removal of sanctions from the Belarusian regime is very important for Putin now. First, it will allow him to receive those goods, the supply of which directly to Russia is prohibited. Secondly, Putin is spending a huge amount of money to support the Belarusian regime, which he would be happy to spend on the war with Ukraine.

- How deeply, in your opinion, does Russia control the power structures and political decisions in Belarus today?

- The question here is not even about Russia's control, but about the fact that the Belarusian regime holds on only thanks to Moscow's support. Lukashenko understands this, and that is why he does everything he is ordered to do, like an obedient vassal. The system of power in Belarus is built in such a way that Russia does not have to infiltrate its agents into all structures. It is enough to control the dictator and his immediate entourage.

- Is it possible to really build an independent Belarus after the fall of Lukashenko's regime, or is the Kremlin's influence already irreversible?

- One of the most important achievements of 2020 was that Belarusians changed their attitude to Russia. At first, some of Lukashenko's opponents had naive calculations that Moscow would help replace him. But this quickly passed. Belarusians realized that Lukashenko survived in 2020 solely thanks to Russia. And if earlier they separated him and Putin, now they hate both equally. Therefore, as soon as the power changes, we can quickly start building a normal European state, restore our language and culture, become part of the EU and NATO. And these processes - the processes of forming a modern independent state - will really be irreversible.

- If Yanukovych had not fled in 2014, could Ukraine have been under the same external control as Belarus is now?

- Let's not forget that Yanukovych did not run away of his own accord, he was forced to run away. He simply had no other choice at that time. Euromaidan won thanks to the right strategy and decisive actions of the leaders and participants of the protests. If the mistakes I mentioned above had not been made in Belarus, Lukashenko would have run away in the same way - he is more cowardly than Yanukovych.

At the same time, we all need to realize that Russia seeks to restore its influence not only in the post-Soviet space, but also in Eastern Europe. This is a threat to both Belarus and Ukraine. During the meetings with your politicians, representatives of the Belarusian opposition repeatedly spoke about this threat, about the fact that Lukashenko's troops will attack Ukraine, and about what could be done to prevent this from happening.

We suggested creating FM stations in the north of Ukraine, which would broadcast to Belarus. It would be possible to achieve the inclusion of Ukrainian TV channels in the Belarusian cable networks, because Lukashenko's propaganda was quietly spread in Ukraine until 2020, and the agreement to broadcast Ukrainian TV channel to Belarus was reached during the meeting between Lukashenko and Turchinov in March 2014. I am not talking about the trade with the Belarusian dictator, which continued until the war started.

- Do you think that Ukraine's victory in the war will be a turning point for the liberation of Belarus as well?"

- Absolutely. We see how heroically the Ukrainians are fighting for the independence of their homeland in very difficult conditions, and this inspires us, the Belarusians. We have always understood that our countries can achieve freedom only together. That's why Belarusians were in Kiev during the Orange Revolution and on Euromaidan.

Belarusian Mikhail Zhiznevsky was the first person killed during the confrontation outside the Dynamo stadium on Hrushevskyi in Kiev on January 22, 2014. My friend, former member of the Zubr movement Ales Cherkashin from Brest died on August 28, 2015 in a hospital in Zaporozhye from combat wounds sustained in Donbass. Dozens of Belarusians have died on the front in recent years.

I myself once, together with leaders of the Serbian Otpor movement, conducted trainings for activists of the future Pora, an organization that played a key role in 2004. Participants of the "Zubr" movement, "European Belarus" and other organizations are now defending Ukraine with weapons in their hands. We have a common enemy and a common goal. Ukraine's victory will inevitably lead to the collapse of Russia and bring freedom not only to Belarus, but also to many other nations.