Oleksandr Kovalenko: Entire Russian Army May Get Encircled

• 12.11.2025, 23:06

The expert told what is happening in Pokrovsk now.

Just two weeks ago, the Kremlin said that Pokrovsk and Mirnograd were completely surrounded. However, we see that the towns are holding on, and their suburbs are dotted with burned RF equipment.

What is happening on this section of the front now? The site Charter97.org talked about it with Ukrainian military and political observer of the group "Information Resistance" Alexander Kovalenko:

- Urban battles are taking place there. That is, there is no encirclement as such, which the Russian propaganda was talking about. The situation is, of course, very difficult, as there is a large concentration of enemy forces and means there. In general, on the Pokrovsk direction there is a grouping of about 150 thousand people on the Russian side - a very dense concentration.

The 2nd All-Russian Army of the Russian Federation, which has allocated about 11 thousand people, is mainly active in Pokrovsk itself. They are used as infiltrated sabotage groups. That is, they are distributed in waves so that 24/7, in non-stop mode, to launch sabotage groups of 2-3, 3-4 people into the city. Their main tactics are exactly the same - not to storm, for example, by a company, platoon or tank column on a TBM, but to act in small groups, but en masse. This forces to disperse attention and, of course, complicates the identification and neutralization of such groups.

At the moment, the Russian occupation forces control the southern part - the southern suburbs of Pokrovsk: the Lazurny microdistrict, as well as the Yuzhny, Leontovichi and Roza microdistricts. Behind the M-30 highway, the central part of the city - Durnyak, Pervomaika, Center, Rok, Sobachevka. In fact, this is an active combat zone where the Russians are infiltrating their DRGs. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting mop-up operations there. The northern part of the city - behind the railroad and the railroad station - is controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Also the M-32 highway, which goes to Mirnograd, is under the control of the Ukrainian military.

Of course, in this area there is still fire control of the Russians - artillery, FPV-drones, mortars, but encirclement is out of the question. Now the General Staff is conducting stabilization operations, and the main fighting is taking place in the central part of the city.

- Yesterday, a video appeared online as Russian troops under cover of fog tried to enter Pokrovsk. Later, frames of broken equipment appeared. What is known about this attempt of the occupants to break into the city?"

- This is a usual attempt to pass into the city. The occupiers control the southern part of the city. It was one of the roads leading to the southern outskirts, where they have zones of accumulation and concentration of forces - the neighborhoods of Lazurny, Yuzhny, Leontovichi and Rosa. They moved along one of these roads.

Since it was foggy, the column did not attract much attention and moved slowly. Normally, enemy motorcycle units move at high speed on this road to avoid being hit by FPV drones. But in the foggy conditions, the drones didn't work, and the Russians decided to move quietly so they couldn't hear the vehicles.

All in all, this is nothing new. Then, when they manage to break through to the southern neighborhoods, they settle there, concentrate in administrative buildings, schools, kindergartens, hospitals and other facilities. After that, they try to infiltrate into the central part of the city.

- North of Pokrovsk, in the area of Dobropillya, Ukrainian forces conduct successful counterattacks and liberated several settlements. What is known about the advance of the AFU and what is the situation there now?

- In the area of Dobropillya, the situation is much better than near Pokrovskoye, because there, in fact, the operation of the 51st All-Russian Army of the Russian Federation was completely thwarted. I think that there is simply no prospect for the Russians to develop events without occupying Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. Only in case of capturing these cities they could support the 51st Army to expand and intensify the fighting near Dobropolye.

While Pokrovsk and Mirnograd are held, the Ukrainian defense forces have an advantage in the Dobropolye direction. Moreover, there may be a situation when the enemy will be forced to withdraw to the left bank of the Kazennyi Torz - from Rodynskyi and Krasnyi Liman. If they do not do this, there is a high probability that they will find themselves encircled exactly in the area of Rodynsky and Krasny Liman.

The command of the 51st Army, by the way, has recently been changed - not because of successful actions, but on the contrary. And they have little choice now. This is another confirmation that the encirclement of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd does not exist. After all, it was the 51st Army that was supposed to provide it, but actually lost its combat capability.

- Can the Russian army "run out of steam" at Pokrovsk, using all its remaining reserves? What consequences can this lead to for the occupiers in other directions of the front?

- There are completely different groups of troops operating in other directions of the front. Therefore, the situation in Pokrovsk does not affect, for example, the Sumy direction, Volchansk or Kupyansk. Although the failure of the 51st Army near Dobropolye did affect the Sumy direction - some units had to be transferred from the Kursk grouping, for example, the 40th Independent Marine Brigade and the 155th Independent Marine Brigade. They were sent to reinforce the 51st Army.

On the whole, at the moment it will not change the situation dramatically - neither for the worse nor for the better. All the resources go to Pokrovsk: for rotation, restoration of combat capability, compensation for losses. Consequently, the same 6th All-Russian Army in the Kupyansk area will not receive, say, 10-15 thousand men within a month. They will be given exactly as many as they need to compensate for losses - no more. Everything else is sent under Pokrovsk. So the situation is leveled out - neither worse nor better. Everything we have is now concentrated in the Pokrovsk direction.