It Has Become Clear Where The Dollar Exchange Rate Will Move In November
- 10.11.2025, 11:19
Currency Forecast.
The first trading week of November on the fx market was held in a shortened format, but confirmed the forecast for stabilization of the Belarusian fx market. What exchange rates can be expected this week, myfin.by tells financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
Demand for dollars remains high
By Thursday, November 6, the dollar exchange rate at the end of trading on the BCSE stopped at the value of USD/BYN 2.9796, adding only +0.05% for the week. By the beginning of the year, the change in the dollar exchange rate remains at -14.22%. But, which is quite important for analyzing the currency market, for the incomplete trading week the volume of transactions with the U.S. dollar on the BCSE amounted to $84.690 million, which corresponds to the upper level of trade turnover. This indicates a consistently high demand for the US dollar, despite the low volatility of the exchange rate.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble for the same period decreased by -0.15% to RUB/BYN 3.6783 per 100 Russian rubles. The total change in the ruble exchange rate in the Belarusian market has decreased to +9.84% since the beginning of the year. The ruble trading volume is in the average range.
Low volatility in the domestic foreign exchange market is due to the stabilization of factors supporting the Russian ruble in the Russian financial market. The monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia is in a stable phase with a very high key rate. Inflation indicators, on which the Bank of Russia relies, are stable with the prospect of acceleration by the end of this year and the beginning of next year. The Central Bank calls the increase in the VAT rate and the introduction of a higher utilization fee on newly imported cars as pro-inflationary factors. In addition, the volume of issued loans began to increase again, which will also add rigidity to the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia.
Hard correction in gold
After the gold price soared in mid-October to a historic high of 4398 dollars per ounce, a classic correction was formed in the global financial market. The price of the metal rolled back to the USD/Oz 4000 level, having lost about 10% from the maximum. For two weeks in a row the price has been sliding in a sideways flat with the prospect of making up its mind. It is difficult to say which way the reversal will be, but the main factors - global demand for gold and geopolitical uncertainty in the era of the Trump administration - remain in force, so it is not excluded that after some respite the metal will move to new highs.
The bet on the dollar may not work
The EUR/USD currency pair fell to a local low of 1.1474 last week, but then turned north. The ongoing shutdown in the US has exceeded the historical record and now each new day without the state budget brings significant losses to the states. This circumstance does not add optimism to the supporters of the U.S. economy, so the bet on the dollar may not work.
In view of the above, the situation in the Belarusian currency market is unlikely to change this week and in general, until the end of November, in the direction of weakening of the national currency. The U.S. dollar exchange rate continues to remain slightly below Br3, while the Russian ruble near the current quotations.