"Change In Belarus Can Happen Very Quickly"
- 9.10.2025, 17:02
There are so many threats to Lukashenko.
This was stated in interview Sharter97.org by coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" and one of the founders of the resistance movement "Zubr" Evgeny Afnagel, commenting on the protests in 2020:
- It was surprising for me to consider that 2020 was a surprise for someone at all.Those who have been saying so for five years and continue to say so now, probably just don't know our people.
Because everything was clear already after the mass protests against the decree on "deadbeats", after the celebration of the centenary of the BNR, after the reburial of the remains of Kastus Kalinowski and his companions, the parliamentary campaign, the actions in defense of independence at the end of 2019.
Predictions about what would happen in Belarus because of the falsification of the presidential election were made by many politicians. This was said by Nikolai Statkevich, Andrei Sannikov, Vladimir Nekliaev, Dmitri Bondarenko, Natalia Radina, Pavel Seviarynets, Gennady Fedynich, Andrei Sharendo. Many bloggers and journalists talked about it. Belarusians talked about it - and not only in their kitchens.
In the end, the dictator himself talked about it. One had to be blind or deaf at that time to think that nothing would happen in 2020.
As for predictions for the future, it is difficult for me to make them yet. Unfortunately, I have never been able to see Belarus from the inside. I don't judge only by what I heard while in prison, by the impressions of those who stayed in the country, and, last but not least, by comments and posts in social networks. One should take into account the fact that Belarus is still undergoing horrible repression, and most people simply can't express their opinions openly.
But that doesn't mean that they don't exist. Those who came out to the protests in 2020, their relatives, friends - they haven't disappeared anywhere. They hardly changed their views - there are many more reasons to hate the dictator.
I'm sure all these people still want change in the country. I hope 2020 has taught us all that we need to be strong, we need to act in a more decisive and organized way. We need to stop counting on the regime to play by some rules, to abide by the law.
Change can happen very quickly. There are too many threats to the regime, factors of instability. Anything can become a catalyst - rising prices, non-payment of wages, problems in Russia.
The war in Ukraine is a key factor that affects our entire region. It can and is already beginning to spread to neighboring EU countries, but if the West shows firmness and strength, it will become for Russia what the Afghan war was for the Soviet Union. Ukraine's victory means the collapse of the entire Putin system, and perhaps even the disintegration of Russia.
Naturally, Belarus occupies a key place in this scheme. The year 2020 has very clearly demonstrated to the whole world, to everyone who still doubted it, what we want. Many Belarusians are now fighting in Ukraine, supporting Ukraine in one way or another.
When we were in prison, we understood this, tried to understand what was going on at the front by crumbs of information, scraps of news, just prayed for those who were defending Ukraine. We knew that the fate of Belarus was being decided on the fields of Donbas.