Political Analyst: Babiš Has A Difference From Fico And Orbán

• 8.10.2025, 14:28

What to expect from the future Czech prime minister.

Billionaire Andrej Babiš's ANO party has won the Czech parliamentary elections with more than 35% of the vote. The politician, known for his Euroskeptic views, is seeking to return to power with the slogan "Czech Republic First".

How can the results of the Czech election be assessed? Will Andrej Babiš be able to regain the post of prime minister, considering the balance of power and the position of President Peter Pavel? The website Charter97.org talked to Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO, Bratislava) Grigory Mesežnikov about this:

- Andrej Babiš will become prime minister of the Czech Republic - his party won the election. We need to form a majority government or a minority government with the support of one of the opposition parties. But in any case the other option is not even considered. And, of course, President Petr Pavel will appoint him prime minister, followed by the whole parliamentary procedure of approving the new cabinet. This will surely happen, so there can be no doubts in this respect.

The question arises how this government will pursue its political line inside the country - regarding issues related to the regime of liberal democracy, socio-economic policy and other things. I think that there will be no big problems, although Andrej Babiš is a well-known populist and a person who approaches the management of the state as a company. He has been an entrepreneur for a long time, and this distinguishes him from other politicians: he is a pragmatist who uses corporate principles and management methods in public administration.

- Is an alliance between Babiš, Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico possible? What would it mean for the EU and Ukraine's support?"

- The fact is that the Czech Republic is a member of the Visegrad Four, and Babiš has already stated that it is necessary to "renew the activity" of this association. In fact, an alliance with Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico is quite possible. Babiš's ANO party is now part of the Patriots for Europe faction in the European Parliament, created by Orbán. ANO was formerly a liberal party and was part of the corresponding faction, but later withdrew from it. Fico's party used to belong to the Social Democratic group, but was expelled, and is now not part of either faction of the European Parliament.

I think they certainly have an internal pull towards each other. Andrej Babiš is of Slovak origin and has a good personal relationship with Fico; with Orbán it is less close, but working. Nevertheless, despite his populism, Babiš is not an ideological politician: he is not a social democrat, a liberal or a national conservative like Orbán. Therefore, I think he will conduct his foreign policy in line with pan-European approaches. However, it is obvious that the proactive line pursued by the current Czech government will no longer exist.

Rhetoric will change, although the general support for Ukraine will remain. Some steps may be adjusted. Babiš, for example, has said that the Czech Republic may refuse to participate in the initiative to supply Ukraine with shells, arguing that this is an economic argument - unlike Fitzo, who says it is necessary to "end the war for the sake of peace."

Babiš, on the other hand, uses an economic argument: the Czech Republic itself lacks resources. He claims that the country supports Ukraine through contributions to the European Union, and the EU sends aid to Kiev. This, of course, does not correspond to reality. But it is important to emphasize that Babiš is neither anti-Ukrainian nor pro-Russian. He has a skeptical attitude, but he does not share the anti-Ukrainian hysteria that the Czech right-populist parties developed during the election campaign. He's also not pro-Russian - and that's a matter of principle.

I'd be surprised if he started blocking the adoption of sanctions packages, as Orban is doing or threatening Fitzo. That's not going to happen. Babiš has serious business interests in Europe - he is a macroeconomic entrepreneur. Breaking relations with the EU because of Russian aggression against Ukraine is unacceptable for him. We should not forget that it was under him, when he headed the government, that the Czech Republic expelled most Russian diplomats.

Babis understands that among his voters there are people with different views, so he will try to take their sentiments into account. An alliance with Fitzo and Orban is most likely possible within the Visegrad Four. But Babiš does not see it as an anti-Brussels platform. For Fitzo and Orban, it is an alternative to the EU, but it doesn't work now. For Visehrad to come to life, we need Poland, and Poland, in my opinion, will not go for it.

- How could Babiš's victory affect the Czech Republic's position on the war and aid to Ukraine?"

- We need to wait. There will be no "collapse" of Czech support. Perhaps Babiš will talk less about Ukraine in order not to irritate part of his electorate. The proactive policy pursued so far, when the Czech Republic was on a par with Poland and the Baltic states in its tough stance toward Russia, is likely to become more moderate. But there will be no blocking of support either.

It will be a pragmatic mainstream: perhaps attempts to bargain something from the EU in return for "moderation". But we have to wait and see. So far, in these few days, I haven't noticed a single statement from Babiš that could threaten the Czech position in supporting Ukraine.