ISW: Putin Is Afraid Of This
- 6.10.2025, 8:40
Where Tomahawk missiles can reach.
Russian dictator Putin is using a variety of rhetorical devices to try to keep the Trump administration from supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. And, as written by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), he has good reason to be concerned.
Thus, Putin said that U.S. deliveries of Tomahawk missiles would "lead to the destruction" of the "emerging positive trend" in U.S.-Russian relations. Earlier, Putin said that US servicemen would have to directly participate in Ukrainian Tomahawk strikes. He also said such strikes would mark a "new stage of escalation" but would not change the situation on the battlefield.
"Putin appears to be trying different approaches - from threatening to worsen bilateral relations to downplaying the missiles' usefulness - to influence U.S. decision-making," the report said.
The analysts explain that the Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles in order to preserve the safe haven that Russia enjoys on its rear.
According to the analysts, Ukrainian forces are capable of conducting long-range drone strikes against much of Russia's rear, but the payload of these drones is limited and not suitable for hitting specialized targets. Ukraine's ability to launch missile strikes deep into Russia's rear with larger payloads would allow Ukraine to significantly damage - if not destroy - key military installations in Russia, such as the Shahed drone factory in Elabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, or the Engels-2 airbase in the Saratov region, from which Russia launches strategic bombers:
"ISW estimates that there are at least 1,945 Russian military facilities within range of the 2,500-kilometer version of the Tomahawk, and at least 1,655 within range of the 1,600-kilometer version. Ukraine could likely significantly degrade Russia's frontline combat capability by targeting a vulnerable subset of the rear areas that support and sustain Russian frontline operations."
The ISW reminds us that Ukraine has begun mass production of its own FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile with a range of 3,000 kilometers and a 1,150-kilogram warhead, but the system remains untested and Ukraine will need time to scale production.