FT Names Three Scenarios How The US Can Attack The Regime Of "Lukashenko's Friend"
- 29.10.2025, 23:23
Washington may be preparing to overthrow Venezuelan dictator Maduro.
Experts describe three likely scenarios for a US military intervention against Venezuela, they are cited by Financial Times. In their assessment, the South American republic is preparing for a possible attack, but its armed forces are in a state of decline.
Since the beginning of last month, the US has sunk at least 14 ships suspected of drug trafficking, killing at least 57 people. According to the newspaper, this has raised doubts about the true aims of the operation: despite official statements about the fight against drugs, the inclusion of landing ships and three destroyers in the grouping has raised speculation that Washington may be preparing to overthrow the government in Venezuela.
FT cites three main scenarios for possible U.S. action:
missile and drone strikes on drug trafficking sites;
an operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro or his closest associates;
a full-scale invasion similar to the 1989 Panama operation, but its probability is assessed as low.
The first scenario would require a weakening of the country's air defense. Maduro's recent announcement that Venezuela has 5,000 Russian Igla-S systems may be linked to it. However, such weapons would be useless in preventing U.S. point-blank strikes, said former State Department official Evan Ellis and questioned the veracity of Maduro's words about the missiles' functionality.
An operation to capture the dictator or officials would require infiltrating a major military base, probably with the help of the MV Ocean Trader, a U.S. Special Operations Forces support ship.
Military analyst and head of the Cries think tank in Buenos Aires Andrei Serbin Pont said that for this scenario, the mission would have to neutralize central command units in Caracas and the U.S. military would face "a high concentration of forces, munitions and command structures."
Surveyed analysts also believe that Venezuela's armed forces, originally designed for internal control rather than to repel external aggression, are not ready for a large-scale conflict.
On October 24, CNN reported that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering plans to attack drug production facilities and drug trafficking routes within Venezuela. On the same day, the Republican threatened Venezuela with land strikes to stop the flow of drugs into the US.