Ukraine's SVR: Russia Is Starting To Face New Problems

• 24.10.2025, 10:52

The country is preparing for cuts and deficits.

Russia's oil and gas revenues will drop by 20% in 2026, while the budget deficit will amount to at least 3.8 trillion rubles. Russia is preparing for cuts and deficit amid the economic crisis and falling prices for Russian Urals oil. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

According to the SVR, the Russian budget was initially formed taking into account that Urals oil would cost 70 dollars per barrel, but then they reduced the forecast to 58 dollars per barrel. The Russian Finance Ministry expects that in 2026 the Russian export oil blend will cost $59 per barrel.

But even in this case, Russia's oil and gas revenues are expected to drop by 20% and the budget deficit will be at least 3.8 trillion rubles. The SVR notes that the cost of Urals oil has already fallen below the European Union's "ceiling" of $47.6 per barrel.

It is predicted that Russia's export oil blend is unlikely to rise in price, as the world is increasing energy production.

Following all of the above, the SVR concludes that Russia is approaching 2026 without a power reserve. It faces declining energy revenues, which threatens to widen the budget deficit and cut social spending.

Russian regions have already entered the deepest budget crisis in a decade. As of September 2025, the total budget deficit of Russian regions amounted to 724.8 billion rubles.

Inflation-adjusted revenues have fallen in 53 Russian regions. Because of the budget crisis, Russian regions are forced to cut spending on education and health care.

For example, the Irkutsk Region is cutting spending on education and health care by 4.9 billion rubles. In order to "patch" budget holes, many Russian regions are planning to increase taxes for small businesses and transportation tax.