Reuters: EU Will Be Able To Fully Replace Russian LNG Imports
- 24.10.2025, 10:25
No major price shocks.
The European Union will be able to fully replace imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) with alternative supplies from 2027 without major price shocks thanks to booming projects in the United States and Qatar. This is according to Reuters.
According to the International Liquefied Natural Gas Importers Group, Russia supplies the European Union with 21 million tons of LNG a year, of which 15.5 million tons are under long-term contracts.
This is small compared to the projected growth in global LNG export capacity of 161 million tons per year by 2027, according to Rabobank estimates.
"2027 is a key year for new LNG export capacity coming on stream, especially from the US and Qatar. ... The volume coming online will be enough to make up for the shortfall in Russian LNG, especially if Russian LNG can be supplied to other markets such as China," said energy strategist Florence Schmit.
Rabobank believes by the end of 2027, the U.S. will have increased its supply by more than 50 million tons per year compared to 2025 levels, strengthening its position as a leading exporter.
According to Energy Aspects, the US already supplies more than 50% of LNG to the EU, and that share could rise to 70%.
Qatar is expected to increase supply by around 31 million tons per year thanks to the North Field expansion, while Canada and Nigeria will also open new projects. Anne-Sophie Corbo, a research fellow at Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy, said:
"Overall, ... halting Russian LNG imports to Europe should have minimal impact on gas prices."
Arturo Regalado of Kpler expressed the view that the EU's LNG ban would not reduce the overall volume of Russian gas supplies to the market, but would instead change the structure of global trade flows, as cargoes would likely be redistributed to Asia.
Russia is expected to add almost 20 million tons per year to its existing capacity of nearly 33 million tons per year through the Arctic LNG 2 project.
Corbo said prices in Europe and Asia could rise if Russia is unable to sell significant volumes of LNG in Asia due to sanctions and Asian buyers' reluctance to import it.